Home

Fixing the Final 2025 AP College Football Poll

1) Indiana 16-0
2) Miami (Florida) 13-3
3) Mississippi 13-2
4) Oregon 13-2
5) Ohio State 12-2
6) Georgia 12-2
7) Texas Tech 12-2
8) Texas A&M 11-2
9) Alabama 11-4
10) Notre Dame 10-2
11) Brigham Young 12-2
12) Texas 10-3
13) Oklahoma 10-3
14) Utah 11-2
15) Vanderbilt 10-3
16) Virginia 11-3
17) Iowa 9-4
18) Tulane 11-3
19) James Madison 12-2
20) Southern Cal 9-4
21) Michigan 9-4
22) Houston 10-3
23) Navy 11-2
24) North Texas 12-2
25) Texas Christian 9-4

To the left is the final AP poll college football top 25 for the 2025 season. The fixed final AP poll top 25 follows the article below.

But before I get to correcting the AP poll's errors, let me make one thing clear. This is not about what I would personally prefer to see in the rankings. I myself would be inclined to rank 9-4 TCU ahead of 9-4 Southern Cal, and USC ahead of 9-4 Iowa, and Iowa ahead of 10-3 Vanderbilt. That's because TCU beat USC in their bowl game, USC beat Iowa in mid-November, and Iowa beat Vanderbilt in another bowl game.

The AP poll has ranked these teams in the opposite order, but as it turns out, this is also a logically viable way to rate these teams. I go into more detail on this issue in the article below, but the point is, the AP poll's order for these teams does not need to be fixed, and so I did not fix it. This is about fixing only those AP poll choices that are not logically valid or fair.

So let's get to fixing those...

MS-Painting of Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza's dive into the end zone to cap a 12 yard touchdown run against Miami in the national championship game

My ms-painting of Indiana's Heisman-winning quarterback, Fernando Mendoza, diving into the end zone to cap a 12 yard touchdown run on 4th and 5 in the national championship game. It was the play of the game, and helped Indiana win its first ever national championship in football 27-21 over Miami (Florida).

Ohio State

13-2 Mississippi (#3) and 13-2 Oregon (#4) both passed up 12-2 Ohio State (#5) in the final AP poll, but I don't think that either team should have (though Mississippi's case would be a lot stronger if 12-2 Georgia (#6) had remained ranked ahead of Ohio State in the final poll).

Let's first compare Ohio State to Oregon. This is pretty easy to do because they played 6 common opponents. And Ohio State had a better point margin against 5 of the 6 (and the lone exception is pretty irrelevant, Oregon beating Rutgers 56-10 and Ohio State "only" beating them 42-9-- the week before their big game with Michigan). The most relevant differences are Ohio State losing 13-10 to Indiana in the Big 10 title game and Oregon losing to the same team 56-22 in the playoffs, and Ohio State crushing Penn State 38-14 and Oregon being taken to double overtime by that opponent. Overall, Ohio State only had 1 weak performance, losing to #2 Miami (Florida) by 10 in the playoffs, whereas Oregon posted 3 weak performances (losing twice by more than a touchdown and the close win over 7-6 Penn State). And even Oregon's 2-point win over #17 Iowa was a weaker result than any by Ohio State.

The only argument for Oregon is the fact that their 23-0 win over #7 Texas Tech is better than any Ohio State win. But that lone fact is drowned out by the avalanche of facts supporting Ohio State's case, and in fact, all the good of that result was completely negated, in my opinion, by the 56-22 beatdown Oregon took to Indiana in their next game. We don't know how Ohio State would have done against Texas Tech, but we already know for sure that Ohio State would have done better against Indiana, and did do, losing by only 3 in the Big 10 title game. And even OSU's 24-14 loss to Miami in the playoffs is a far better result than Oregon's 56-22 loss to Indiana, given how close a game Miami played against Indiana in the championship game.

Oregon passing Ohio State up in the final poll just doesn't make sense, so we are definitely going to move OSU back ahead of them. AP poll voters mindlessly moved Oregon past Ohio State simply because the Ducks advanced further in the playoffs, which they "accomplished" by defeating teams that were and still are ranked behind Ohio State anyway. We saw this same bad habit in the final AP poll last year, voters moving teams up in the final poll just because they arbitrarily advanced further in the playoffs due to their easier match-ups.

Ohio State vs Mississippi

Mississippi has a better case against Ohio State because they definitely did better than OSU did in their final games, Ole Miss losing to #2 Miami (Florida) in a close game 31-27, while OSU lost to Miami a week earlier 24-14. But that slim 6-point difference against one common opponent in the playoffs is all Mississippi has going for them. Ohio State's performance was vastly better than that of Mississippi on the season. No unrated team came within 18 points of OSU, but Mississippi posted 4 very close wins (touchdown or less) over unrated teams, including a 6-point win over 2-10 Arkansas at home. Ole Miss also had to rally in the fourth quarter to beat 4-8 Florida 34-24 at home in mid-November, itself a weaker performance by far than any posted by Ohio State this season.

And Mississippi lost an upset game to Georgia, who is ranked behind Ohio State, giving OSU a relevant record that is effectively a game better than that of Mississippi for the season. Now, Mississippi also beat Georgia in the playoffs, which represents, I think, a better win than any by Ohio State, and since Ohio State did not themselves defeat a team as highly ranked as Georgia, I think that Mississippi's upset loss to Georgia is not as damaging when comparing them to OSU as it could be. Still, the fact that AP voters rated OSU higher than Georgia does mean that Mississippi's loss to Georgia can only hurt them in comparison to OSU. It's just a question of degree.

Judging solely by the last game for each, Mississippi may have been 6 points better than Ohio State at the end of the season, but while I think the later games should get more emphasis, especially playoff games, it is still just one game, and I think these rankings should represent the season as a whole. Ohio State massively outperformed Mississippi this season, and one small difference in one game should not erase the rest of the entire season.

So we're moving Ohio State up past Mississippi, to #3. Like Oregon, Mississippi was moved ahead of Ohio State in the final poll mostly because they advanced further in the playoffs. But before we finish with the Buckeyes, let's briefly address one more issue...

Ohio State vs Miami (Florida)

13-3 Miami (#2) defeated 12-2 Ohio State 24-14 in the playoffs, but Miami also took 2 upset losses to unranked teams this season (9-4 Louisville and 9-4 Southern Methodist), so Ohio State had a better relevant record on the season (as well as a better straight record). On that basis, I think someone could, if they wanted to, legitimately rank Ohio State higher than Miami despite that one head-to-head result (it being outweighed by 2 upset losses for Miami).

Now, I've maintained over the years that while bowl games should carry more weight than regular season games (and later games in general should carry more weight than earlier games), they should not count double. However, playoff games are a different animal, as they carry far more significance than regular bowl games, with everything on the line. Players aren't generally opting out of playoff games, and teams are 100% motivated for them, unlike regular bowl games. As such, as I said last year, I do think that playoff games can count for double the value of a regular season game, at least in terms of head-to-head results. So in other words, Miami can be ranked ahead of Ohio State, and that is certainly how I would rank them myself. I assume that pretty much anyone would, though, again, it would be logically viable to rate OSU higher.

Move Ohio State up to #3, and drop Mississippi and Oregon 1 spot each.

Mississippi, Oregon, and Georgia

So now we have 13-3 Mississippi #4, 13-3 Oregon #5, and 12-2 Georgia #6. Mississippi being rated ahead of Georgia is a no-brainer since they beat them in the playoffs, but Oregon passing Georgia up in the final AP poll I find to be pretty iffy. I would have rated Georgia ahead of Oregon myself. But although it is iffy, I think I can let the AP poll have this one. Let's take a look at these teams.

Mississippi took an upset loss to Georgia, who is ranked behind Oregon, but Mississippi also defeated Georgia in the playoffs, and Oregon did not themselves defeat a team ranked quite as highly as Georgia, so this upset loss is limited in how much it hurts Ole Miss when comparing them to Oregon. Mississippi had 4 weak performances and Oregon 3, but Oregon's worst effort, the hyper-ugly 56-22 loss to #1 Indiana, came in the playoffs, giving it much greater weight, while all 4 of Mississippi's close wins (touchdown or less) over unrated teams came in their first 6 games, giving them less weight. Also, Mississippi's 35 and 31 point wins over #18 Tulane are better than Oregon's 17 point win over #19 James Madison, and Mississippi's 8 point win at #13 Oklahoma is better than Oregon's 2 point win at #17 Iowa. While I think you could rate Oregon higher (due to Mississippi's upset loss), I think that all of these facts are definitely enough to rate Mississippi higher than Oregon, as the AP poll did.

However, there is very little difference between Mississippi and Georgia, so it's hard to see how Mississippi can be rated higher than Oregon but not Georgia. If Oregon's 56-22 loss to Indiana sends them back behind Mississippi, why not Georgia? Well, you really have to split hairs here, but as I indicated earlier, I think there is some case for putting Oregon after Mississippi and ahead of Georgia. Georgia only had 3 weak performances (Mississippi, again, had 4), but 2 of them came in November (4 point win over 4-8 Florida and 7 point win over 9-4 unrated Georgia Tech in their regular season finale). And while Mississippi's upset loss came to #6 Georgia, and Oregon did not defeat a team ranked that highly or higher, Georgia's upset loss came to #9 Alabama, and Oregon did defeat a team ranked higher than that (#7 Texas Tech). So Georgia's upset loss is more damaging when comparing them to Oregon than Mississippi's upset loss is. Also, Georgia only beat 3 rated teams, and just 5 bowl qualifiers (Mississippi beat 4 rated teams and 6 bowl qualifiers).

So you could rate Oregon ahead of both Mississippi and Georgia, or behind both Mississippi and Georgia (my preference), but between the two, as the AP poll has done, will work as well. No change here.

Texas > Texas A&M

This is an issue I've complained about in three different articles since November. 10-3 Texas (#12) defeated 11-2 Texas A&M (#8) 27-17 in their regular season finale, and they should absolutely be ranked ahead of the Aggies, no doubt about it whatsoever. Texas has 3 losses and Texas A&M has 2 because Texas played 6 ranked teams and Texas A&M played 3. Twice as many! Texas did take a bad upset at 4-8 Florida, but the head-to-head result makes up for it and should put Texas ahead of A&M. Texas' other 2 losses came to #6 Georgia and now-#3 Ohio State; both are ranked higher than Texas A&M, and therefore those losses are irrelevant when comparing Texas to Texas A&M. Texas even performed better than Texas A&M, as they posted just 2 close wins (touchdown or less) over unrated teams to 3 for Texas A&M (and Texas A&M's 3 included a 3 point win over a 2-10 team).

Here's what I wrote on this issue in an article I posted more than a week before the final AP poll was published: "The AP poll has always relied way too heavily on straight records, and all that does is irrationally punish teams that play tougher schedules and reward teams that play weaker schedules. If you are an AP poll voter, before you turn in your ballot, go ahead and run through the schedules of Texas and Texas A&M and count the teams you have ranked in your own top 25. Have some sense."

Unfortunately, AP poll voters showed no such sense. Still, they did put 10-3 Texas just ahead of 10-3 Oklahoma (by a mere 11 poll points), a team Texas also defeated by more than a touchdown, and I didn't think that would happen, so I suppose the voters are to be congratulated for at least getting that much right (if only just barely).

Again, Texas defeated Texas A&M by more than a touchdown (27-17) in their regular season finale, giving more weight to the outcome on both counts, and it is a slam dunk that Texas should be rated ahead of Texas A&M. Where do we put the 2 teams? Well, their average poll points would put them just ahead of #10 Notre Dame, and that works well since Texas A&M beat Notre Dame this season (the only rated team they beat).

That gives us the following ratings shift: Alabama #8, Texas #9, Texas A&M #10, Notre Dame #11, and Brigham Young #12. Alabama is rated too highly here, a problem that we will turn our attention to next.

Alabama

11-4 Alabama (now #8) took a pair of upset losses, to 5-7 Florida State and to #13 Oklahoma, but they made up for one of those with a big upset win over #6 Georgia. 10-3 Texas (now #9) took just 1 upset loss, to 4-8 Florida, but they did not get an upset win over a higher-ranked team. Alabama and Texas therefore have the same relevant record (though Texas obviously has a better straight record). What separates them is that Texas easily outperformed Alabama on the season. Alabama had a huge 6 poor performances this season, 3 losses by more than a touchdown and 3 close wins (touchdown or less) over unrated opponents. Texas only posted 3 weak performances, a big loss to Georgia (like Alabama) and 2 close wins over unrated teams.

Texas also finished stronger than Alabama, as they posted no weak performances after mid-November, while Alabama edged 5-7 Auburn in their regular season finale, got crushed by Georgia in the SEC title game, and got destroyed 38-3 by Indiana in the playoffs to finish their season. Finally, Texas defeated 4 ranked teams, Alabama 3. So Texas should be ranked ahead of Alabama.

11-4 Alabama had been ranked behind 11-2 Texas A&M (now #10) to begin with, so we'll also go ahead and drop Alabama back behind them again. Texas A&M took no upset losses, so they definitely should be rated higher than Alabama.

That brings us to 11-4 Alabama vs. 10-2 Notre Dame, a slam-dunk no-brainer that favors the Irish. Again, Alabama had 2 upset losses (5-7 FSU and #13 Oklahoma) and 1 upset win (#6 Georgia), and Notre Dame had no upset losses (or wins), so like Texas A&M, Notre Dame had a better relevant record than Alabama did (and a significantly better straight record). And again, Alabama posted 6 poor performances, while Notre Dame had ZERO poor performances. That's right, both of Notre Dame's losses were close (3 point loss to #2 Miami and 1 point loss to Texas A&M), and all of their wins came by more than a touchdown. Their 3 point loss to Miami looks particularly strong now that Miami has finished the season at #2 (it's better than Ohio State, Mississippi, and Texas A&M did against them in the playoffs).

So Alabama should be dropped back behind Notre Dame (where the AP poll had them ranked previous to this final poll). That drops Alabama back to #11, and Texas, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame all move up 1 spot.

12-2 Brigham Young now sits right behind 11-4 Alabama, and that presents us with another problem, which we will cover next.

Alabama, Oklahoma, and Brigham Young

11-4 Alabama now sits at #11, 12-2 Brigham Young #12, and 10-3 Oklahoma #13, and these three are very similar to the Mississippi-Oregon-Georgia situation covered above. Alabama lost to Oklahoma during the regular season, then beat them during the playoffs, so Alabama must be ranked above Oklahoma, very similar to Mississippi and Georgia. But while putting Oregon between Mississippi and Georgia was awkward, but ultimately viable, I just cannot see Brigham Young being viably placed between Alabama and Oklahoma.

Part of the reason Georgia could be ranked behind Oregon is because they took an upset loss (to Alabama). However, Oklahoma did not take any upset losses. And due to their win over Alabama, who was ranked higher than BYU, I can't see a good reason for BYU to be ranked higher than Oklahoma but lower than Alabama. On the other hand, BYU took no upset losses themselves, while Alabama took 2 (to Oklahoma and to 5-7 Florida State). One of those upset losses was balanced out by an upset win over #6 Georgia, but that still leaves Alabama with one upset loss that was not balanced out, and thus a worse relevant record than BYU has (as well as a much worse straight record). Combine that with Alabama's abysmal season-long performance (as detailed above), and BYU can be viably ranked ahead of Alabama (and thus Oklahoma as well).

But the other choice would be to place 12-2 BYU behind 10-3 Oklahoma. These 2 teams are extremely close, as they each posted 5 weak performances. But Oklahoma also posted a strong close win in a 34-26 loss to now-#4 Mississippi, while BYU was stomped in both games they played against a top ten opponent (both against #7 Texas Tech). That one difference, plus Oklahoma's win over Alabama being better than any win by BYU, is enough to viably rate Oklahoma higher than BYU.

So which should it be? BYU in front of Alabama and Oklahoma or behind them? I would be inclined to put them in front of the 2 teams myself, but the average poll points of Alabama (1065) and Oklahoma (941) is 1003, and BYU has 961 poll points, so on that basis, we will put BYU behind the two teams.

Alabama remains #11, Oklahoma moves up to #12, and Brigham Young drops to #13.

Virginia

Here is another issue I have addressed in three different articles since November. I'll largely just repeat here what I wrote a couple of weeks ago. 11-3 Virginia (#16) has taken 3 upset losses to unranked teams, one of them in their conference title game (to unranked 9-5 Duke), and they have not beaten a ranked opponent, so putting them in the top 25 makes no sense at all. None. Zilch. As in, they have NO argument whatsoever for inclusion in any rational top 25.

It is simply not possible for any team to play ZERO ranked opponents, lose THREE games, and still merit inclusion in any sensible top 25. Let alone be ranked as highly as #16! Utterly ridiculous, and the worst ranking decision in this entire AP poll.

Moreover, Virginia should be ranked back behind 9-5 Duke, who beat them in the ACC title game. But I would rank Virginia back behind 9-4 Southern Methodist, 9-4 Georgia Tech, 8-5 North Carolina State, and 9-4 Wake Forest as well (all outside the top 25, needless to say). Virginia went 1-3 against this group of teams (the 1 win came against Duke, who, again, beat them in the ACC title game to trump that result).

Drop Virginia out of the top 25. Everyone who had been ranked behind them moves up 1 spot, and 9-4 Illinois, who had been ranked #26 in the "Others Receiving Votes" section of the AP poll, moves into the top 25. 9-4 Washington, who was ranked right behind Illinois at #27, beat Illinois and should be ranked ahead of them, but we'll worry about that later (covered below). The important thing where Washington and Illinois are concerned is that each took 1 upset loss, while Virginia, again, took 3! And Washington beat Illinois, and Illinois beat #20 Southern Cal, while Virginia beat no ranked opponents. So good riddance to Virginia, who doesn't come close to measuring up to the teams currently at the bottom of the top 25.

James Madison

Yet another issue I've been discussing for months. What I said January 10th: James Madison (now #18) is an impressive-looking 12-2, but they haven't beaten a rated team, and their 28-14 loss at 9-4 Louisville (#34 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP poll) looks pretty convincing to me. They didn't beat a team ranked higher than that, and the loss came by 2 touchdowns, so why should I believe that that loss was an upset? Frankly, I don't see any reason at all to pretend it was an upset, and James Madison should therefore be ranked back behind Louisville, which is to say, nowhere near the top 25 (Louisville should be ranked behind SMU, Georgia Tech, Duke, NC State, Wake Forest, and Virginia).

As I've been saying for 15 years, if a Little Big Team (minor conference team) wants to be ranked, they really need to beat the one unranked mediocre major conference team on their schedule. If they can't do that, I don't care how many wins over cupcakes they pile up.

Drop James Madison out of the top 25. Everyone who had been ranked behind them moves up 1 spot, and 9-4 Washington, currently ranked #26 (and originally ranked #27 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP poll), moves into the top 25.

North Texas > Navy

Yet another issue I've covered previously, and more than once. Repeating what I wrote before: This is pretty simple. 12-2 North Texas currently sits right behind 11-2 Navy, but UNT beat Navy 31-17 this season, and needless to say, they should be ranked higher. That win came by 2 touchdowns, and took place in November, so it is pretty convincing. North Texas also performed better, as they had 3 close wins (touchdown or less), Navy 5.

North Texas did take an upset loss (to unranked 9-4 South Florida), and Navy took no upset losses, but UNT made up for that with the head-to-head win, and again, it was decisive, so no reason to dismiss it. That head-to-head win is what put North Texas into the AAC title game instead of Navy, and it was UNT's loss to Tulane there that sent North Texas back behind Navy in the rankings, where they have been ever since. But Tulane is and has been ranked well ahead of Navy anyway, so punishing UNT for getting into the AAC title game and losing to Tulane has simply been irrational.

Switch 'em. North Texas goes to #21 and Navy to #22.

Texas Christian > Houston

9-4 Texas Christian (now #23) won 17-14 at 10-3 Houston (now #20) in late November, and they should therefore be rated ahead of Houston. TCU did take a big 3 upset losses to unrated teams, but they made up for one of those with a big upset win over now-#18 Southern Cal in the Alamo Bowl. Houston took an upset loss to an unrated team themselves, and so TCU's head-to-head win over Houston leaves the teams with the same relevant record, but with TCU having the head-to-head tiebreaker. And that head-to-head win came on the road and late in the season, giving it greater weight on both counts. Houston has a better straight record because they played just 2 ranked opponents and a truly pathetic 5 bowl qualifiers (in 13 games!). TCU played 3 ranked opponents and 8 bowl qualifiers. Finally, TCU performed better than Houston did this season, and in fact Houston was the worst-performing team in the top 25. TCU posted 3 close wins (touchdown or less) over unranked opponents, Houston 6.

So we will move Texas Christian ahead of Houston. But first let's look at one way Houston could be legitimately ranked higher than TCU...

Houston > TCU > Southern Cal > Iowa > Vanderbilt

10-3 Houston > 9-4 Texas Christian > 9-4 Southern Cal > 9-4 Iowa > 10-3 Vanderbilt. If I were ranking teams into a top 25, this is how I would rate these 5 teams relative to each other, and I advocated for this in my article on January 10. If Southern Cal is ranked below TCU, then TCU's victory over USC doesn't balance out one of their 3 upset losses, and Houston would then have a better relevant record than TCU does. Houston could then be viably rated ahead of TCU. The rest is a simple victory chain. TCU defeated USC 30-27 in overtime in the Alamo Bowl (and if Houston is rated ahead of TCU and USC, then TCU and USC have the same relevant record), USC defeated Iowa 26-21 at home in November, and Iowa defeated Vanderbilt 34-27 in the ReliaQuest Bowl. I prefer this way of rating these teams because head-to-head results are of paramount importance to me, especially when those results occur in bowl games.

However, after looking closely at this situation, I do think that the AP poll's way of ordering these 5 teams, which is almost exactly the opposite order, is also logically viable, and may even be better than my approach. The thing is, all three of those head-to-head results were close, so not decisive. And Houston, which in my ordering would be the top rated of these teams, is very clearly the least impressive of them. Again, Houston beat no rated teams, played just 2, played just 5 bowl qualifiers in 13 games, and posted an enormous 8 poor performances (6 close wins over unrated opponents and 2 losses by more than a touchdown). TCU, with a big 3 losses to unrated teams, is also highly unimpressive, and my ordering puts them second amongst these teams. Because of the multiple and gaping weaknesses in Houston and TCU, it makes some sense to put them at the bottom of the top 25, and to consider the head-to-head results TCU > USC > Iowa > Vanderbilt to be upsets.

Vanderbilt > Iowa > Southern Cal > TCU

Before moving on, let's look a little more at why the AP poll's way of ordering these teams, opposite of their head-to-head victory chain, works well enough. First of all, Vanderbilt did lose to Iowa in their bowl game, but with this ordering, Iowa has 2 upset losses (to Iowa State and Southern Cal), Vanderbilt none, so Vanderbilt is still a game up on Iowa even with the head-to-head result (in both relevant record and straight record). When comparing Iowa to Southern Cal, Iowa's upset loss to Iowa State is now balanced out by an upset win (over Vanderbilt). Southern Cal beat Iowa, but USC has 2 upset losses (to Illinois and to TCU), which outweigh the one head-to-head result and give Iowa a better relevant record. When comparing USC to TCU, USC's upset loss to Illinois is now balanced out by an upset win (over Iowa). TCU beat USC, but TCU has 3 upset losses (to Arizona State, Kansas State, and Iowa State), so USC has a far better relevant record than TCU does.

Where to put TCU and Houston

So, as I established above, Texas Christian needs to be moved ahead of Houston. Where do we put them? Houston is ranked ahead of North Texas and Navy, and TCU is ranked behind them. Normally, I'd average their ratings, which would put the two teams between North Texas and Navy. But I've already switched North Texas and Navy (as covered previously), so putting TCU and Houston between them wouldn't really make sense (Navy has more poll points than North Texas). So I averaged the poll points for TCU (125) and Houston (270), giving us 197.5, and I averaged the poll points for North Texas (191) and Navy (227), giving us 209. On that basis, we'll put TCU and Houston behind North Texas and Navy. This works fine because Navy took no upset losses, and TCU, again, took 3 (balancing just one of those out with an upset win over now-#18 Southern Cal).

We have the following ratings shift: North Texas to #20, Navy #21, Texas Christian #22, and Houston #23.

Washington and Illinois

I've been touting 9-4 Washington and 9-4 Illinois since November, and I highlighted them in my January 10 article as 2 teams that I thought would be unranked in the final AP poll top 25, but that should be ranked. And indeed, Illinois was ranked #26 and Washington #27 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP poll. However, those teams currently sit at #24 and #25 now that Virginia (formerly #16) and James Madison (#19) have been tossed out of the top 25 (both covered above). Good enough? Not quite. These teams look a lot more impressive than now #23 Houston (10-3) and now-#22 Texas Christian (9-4).

But before we compare them to Houston and TCU, we need to get Illinois and Washington in the correct order. Washington defeated Illinois 42-25 this season, a decisive result, and they should definitely be rated ahead of Illinois. Illinois does have a very nice upset win over now-#18 Southern Cal, but the head-to-head result still puts Washington on top here. So we will move Washington ahead of Illinois.

Let's compare the 2 teams to Houston. Houston beat no rated teams, while Washington and Illinois each defeated one (Washington over Illinois and Illinois over Southern Cal), and Washington and Illinois each played twice as many rated teams as Houston did. All 3 teams took an upset loss to an unrated team (Washington and Illinois both took theirs to 4-8 Wisconsin, Houston to 4-8 West Virginia), but Illinois made up for theirs with the upset win over Southern Cal, and Washington, again, beat Illinois. As far as performance goes, Houston, as covered previously, posted a terrible 8 poor performances (6 close wins over unrated teams and 2 losses by more than a touchdown), while Washington had 4 poor performances and Illinois 6. I don't see any good argument for Houston here, so we'll move both teams ahead of Houston.

After that, 9-4 Texas Christian, with 3 upset losses to unranked teams, has no chance when compared to 9-4 Washington and 9-4 Illinois. TCU made up for one of the 3 with an upset win over Southern Cal, but Washington only had 1 upset loss, so that still leaves Washington with a relevant record that is effectively 1 game better than that of TCU for the season. Illinois also took 1 upset loss, but like TCU, they beat Southern Cal, which balances out their one upset loss and renders them effectively 2 games better than TCU for the season.

Move Washington and Illinois ahead of TCU and Houston, giving us the following ratings shift: Washington #22, Illinois #23, Texas Christian #24, and Houston #25.

Tennessee

Our top 25 is set now, but I'd like to offer a final word on 8-5 Tennessee (#32 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP poll). All five of Tennessee's losses have come to teams that are currently rated (#6 Georgia, #11 Alabama, #12 Oklahoma, #15 Vanderbilt, and #23 Illinois). Because they did not take any upset losses to unranked teams, Tennessee could be viably ranked as high as #24, right behind Illinois, who edged them 30-28 in the Music City Bowl. Current #24 Texas Christian (9-4) and #25 Houston (10-3), as covered above, did take upset losses to unranked teams, so Tennessee has a better relevant record than both.

However, Tennessee's 8 wins are the problem, because they don't have a single victory over an FBS team that achieved 6 wins. The best team they beat is 5-7 Kentucky. TCU may have taken 3 upset losses, but all 3 came to bowl qualifiers, and since Tennessee did not beat any team as strong as that themselves, those upset losses aren't much of an argument for moving Tennessee ahead of TCU. Moreover, TCU defeated 2 ranked teams, now-#18 Southern Cal and #25 Houston, and they also beat 9-4 Southern Methodist (originally ranked #28 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the final AP poll) and 7-6 Cincinnati.

Now-#25 Houston took their one upset loss to 4-8 West Virginia, and Tennessee did beat teams that strong, so there is perhaps a better argument for moving Tennessee ahead of Houston, but unlike Tennessee, Houston posted some impressive wins for a #25 team. Houston defeated 9-4 Arizona (originally ranked #30 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the final AP poll), 8-5 Arizona State, and 7-6 Louisiana State. Tennessee, again, beat no one of any value at all, and thus they did nothing to really earn inclusion in the top 25.

Houston's 38-35 win over 7-6 LSU in the Texas Bowl is particularly impressive, because like Tennessee, all of LSU's losses came to rated teams, but unlike Tennessee, LSU defeated 3 bowl qualifiers. LSU lost close games to #4 Mississippi, #12 Oklahoma, and #15 Vanderbilt, and if not for their close loss to Houston in their bowl game, LSU would be a viable top 25 team. As it is, they should probably be ranked #26, and that bolsters Houston's hold on the last spot in the top 25. In fact, if not for Houston's win over LSU, I would probably be looking at 8-4 Iowa State to be ranked ahead of Houston (LSU has a better relevant record than ISU does).

But the real point here is that although Tennessee could be viably rated ahead of TCU and Houston, the AP poll's choice of rating TCU and Houston higher is also valid, and frankly a better choice.

Fixed AP Poll Top 25

Two teams fall out of this fixed AP poll top 25, 11-3 Virginia (#16) and 12-2 James Madison (#19). They are replaced by 9-4 Washington (now #22) and 9-4 Illinois (#23). The 2 teams that fall out totaled 4 losses to unranked teams, and they did not defeat any team that the AP poll had rated. Discounting their game against each other, the 2 teams that replace them totaled 2 losses to unranked teams, half as many, and they defeated 1 AP-rated team (Illinois over Southern Cal). That's a win for the replacements on both counts, and thus for the fixed AP poll over the original.

And here it is, your fixed final AP poll for the 2025 season, now logically coherent.

1) Indiana 16-0	--
2) Miami (Florida) 13-3	--
3) Ohio State 12-2	+2
4) Mississippi 13-2	-1
5) Oregon 13-2	-1
6) Georgia 12-2	--
7) Texas Tech 12-2	--
8) Texas 10-3	+4
9) Texas A&M 11-2	-1
10) Notre Dame 10-2	--
11) Alabama 11-4	-2
12) Oklahoma 10-3	+1
13) Brigham Young 12-2	-2
14) Utah 11-2	--
15) Vanderbilt 10-3	--
16) Iowa 9-4	+1
17) Tulane 11-3	+1
18) Southern Cal 9-4	+2
19) Michigan 9-4	+2
20) North Texas 12-2	+4
21) Navy 11-2	+2
22) Washington 9-4	IN
23) Illinois 9-4	IN
24) Texas Christian 9-4	+1
25) Houston 10-3	-3

OUT: #16 Virginia 11-3
#19 James Madison 12-2

Fixed AP Polls
Home