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Ranking the Top 25 Teams for the 2025 Season

January 10, 2026

AP poll voters' top 25 ballots will be due right after the National Championship game January 19, but hopefully they have already started working on their final rankings. With more than a week still to go before the final game, AP voters have plenty of time to look carefully at all the relevant teams and to put together a solid final top 25. To help in that regard, I offer some advice on how certain teams should be ranked (below), but first let's look at the final regular-season AP poll, along with the teams' subsequent results thus far:

1) Indiana 13-1	Defeated #11 Alabama 38-3 Defeated #5 Oregon 56-22
2) Georgia 11-3	Lost to #6 Mississippi 39-34
3) Ohio State14-1	Lost to #10 Miami (Florida) 24-14
4) Texas Tech 13-2	Lost to #5 Oregon 23-0
5) Oregon 13-3	Defeated #19 James Madison 51-34 Defeated #4 Texas Tech 23-0 Lost to #1 Indiana 56-22
6) Mississippi 12-2	Defeated #17 Tulane 41-10 Defeated #2 Georgia 39-34 Lost to #10 Miami (Florida) 31-27
7) Texas A&M 11-2	Lost to #10 Miami (Florida) 10-3
8) Oklahoma 10-3	Lost to #11 Alabama 34-24
9) Notre Dame 11-2	Did not play
10) Miami (Florida) 11-3	Defeated #7 Texas A&M 10-3 Defeated #3 Ohio State 24-14 Defeated #6 Mississippi 31-27
11) Alabama 9-4	Defeated #8 Oklahoma 34-24 Lost to #1 Indiana 38-3
12) Brigham Young 12-2	Defeated #24 Georgia Tech 25-21
13) Vanderbilt 10-3	Lost to 9-4 Iowa 34-27
14) Texas 10-3	Defeated #18 Michigan 41-27
15) Utah 11-2	Defeated 7-6 Nebraska 44-22
16) Southern Cal 9-4	Lost to 9-4 TCU 30-27 in OT
17) Tulane 11-3	Lost to #6 Mississippi 41-10
18) Michigan 9-4	Lost to #14 Texas 41-27
19) James Madison 12-2	Lost to #5 Oregon 51-34
20) Virginia 11-3	Defeated #25 Missouri 13-7
21) Arizona 9-4	Lost to 9-4 SMU 24-19
22) Navy 10-3	Defeated 7-6 Army 17-16 Defeated 7-6 Cincinnati 35-13
23) North Texas 12-2	Defeated 9-4 San Diego St 49-47
24) Georgia Tech 9-4	Lost to #12 Brigham Young 25-21
25) Missouri 8-5	Lost to #20 Virginia 13-7

Others Receiving Votes (in order from most poll points to least)

Houston 10-3	Defeated 7-6 LSU 38-35
Iowa 9-4	Defeated #13 Vanderbilt 34-27
Tennessee 8-5	Lost to 9-4 Illinois 30-28
New Mexico 9-4	Lost to 8-5 Minnesota 20-17 in OT
Duke 9-5	Defeated 8-5 Arizona St 42-39
Boise State 9-5	Lost to 9-4 Washington 38-10
UNLV 10-4	Lost to 9-4 Ohio 17-10
South Florida 9-5	Lost to 10-3 Old Dominion 24-10
Southern Methodist 9-4	Defeated #21 Arizona 24-19
Louisville 9-4	Defeated 8-5 Toledo 27-22
Arizona State 8-5	Lost to 9-5 Duke 42-39
Connecticut 9-4	Lost to 7-6 Army 41-16
Washington 9-4	Defeated 9-5 Boise State 38-10
Kennesaw St 10-4	Lost to 10-4 WMU 41-6
Pittsburgh 8-5	Lost to 9-4 East Carolina 23-17
Illinois 9-4	Defeated 8-5 Tennessee 30-28
Iowa State 8-4	Did not play
Western Michigan 10-4	Defeated 10-4 Kennesaw St 41-6
Texas Christian 9-4	Defeated #16 USC 30-27 in OT

Texas > Texas A&M and Oklahoma

I covered this issue in my comments on the last AP poll, as well as the week before that. In the last AP poll, as can be seen above, Texas was idiotically ranked behind THREE teams they defeated this season. One of those, Vanderbilt, was embarrassed by an unranked team in their bowl game, and will be ranked well behind Texas in the next AP poll, but I expect that Texas A&M and Oklahoma will (wrongly) remain ranked ahead of Texas in the final AP poll. Texas should have been ranked ahead of all 3 teams at the end of the regular season, and they should be ranked ahead of all 3 teams after the final poll.

Texas and Oklahoma are both 10-3, and Texas crushed the Sooners 23-6. This should not be an issue at all, and deserves no further explanation, though in addition to this, Texas played more teams that will be ranked in the final AP poll.

Texas A&M may be a little more tricky, because they are 11-2 and Texas is 10-3, but A&M played 3 teams that will finish ranked, while Texas played 6, twice as many! Two of Texas' losses came to Ohio State and Georgia, both of whom will be ranked higher than Texas A&M, and so those losses should be irrelevant when comparing Texas to Texas A&M. What is relevant is that Texas beat Texas A&M by more than a touchdown, 27-17, at the end of the regular season.

The AP poll has always relied way too heavily on straight records, and all that does is irrationally punish teams that play tougher schedules and reward teams that play weaker schedules. If you are an AP poll voter, before you turn in your ballot, go ahead and run through the schedules of Texas and Texas A&M and count the teams you have ranked in your own top 25. Have some sense.

Texas Christian > Southern Cal > Iowa > Vanderbilt

9-4 Texas Christian beat 9-4 Southern Cal 30-27 in the Alamo Bowl, USC beat 9-4 Iowa 26-21 in November, and Iowa beat 10-3 Vanderbilt 34-27 in the ReliaQuest Bowl. And that is the order in which these 4 teams should be ranked.

I'm guessing that USC will remain ranked ahead of Iowa in the last AP poll, but unfortunately I also suspect that USC will remain ranked higher than TCU, and Vanderbilt higher than Iowa. As such, I will just discuss TCU vs. USC and Iowa vs. Vanderbilt below. But just in case it needs to be said, USC and Iowa both being 9-4, the head-to-head result puts Southern Cal rightfully ahead of Iowa in a sensible ranking.

Texas Christian > Southern Cal

Again, Texas Christian defeated Southern Cal 30-27 in overtime in their bowl game, and both teams finished 9-4, so there isn't much room for debate here. TCU did take an enormous 3 upset losses to unrated teams (Arizona State, Kansas State, and Iowa State), but they made up for 1 of those losses by beating a higher-ranked team (10-3 Houston), Southern Cal took an upset loss themselves (to Illinois), and the third upset loss is balanced out by TCU's head-to-head win over USC. That head-to-head win is the tie-breaker between the teams, and it came in their finale.

Needless to say, even though 9-4 TCU defeated 10-3 Houston, Houston should be ranked higher because they were a game better on the season (as their straight records show). Other than their loss to TCU, Houston only took 1 upset loss, while TCU, again, took 3.

Iowa > Vanderbilt

This case is not so obvious, because Iowa finished 9-4 and Vanderbilt 10-3. But those straight records are an illusion built on the fact that Iowa played 4 teams that will finish ranked and Vanderbilt played 3 (losing to all 3). Iowa suffered 1 upset loss (to Iowa State), and Vanderbilt none, but Iowa made up for that loss with their 34-27 bowl win over Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt may have the better straight record, but the teams have the same relevant record, and the head-to-head tie-breaker goes to Iowa. An important thing the bowls showed us was that not only Vanderbilt was overrated, but the entire SEC (2-8 in bowl games, discounting playoff games against each other), and in the end Vanderbilt does not have a single win over a team that will finish ranked, or even close to ranked. It's possible that no team they beat will get a single poll point.

8-4 Iowa State defeated both 9-4 TCU and 9-4 Iowa, so you might be wondering if they should be rated ahead of one or both of those teams. The answer is no, and it is because they took 3 upset losses, and they therefore have a worse relevant record than do both TCU and Iowa. Let's compare them to Iowa. Again, ISU has 3 upset losses. Their upset win over TCU makes up for one of those losses. Their head-to-head win over Iowa makes up for another. But that still leaves one upset loss, and Iowa did not take an upset loss aside from their loss to ISU. Iowa was effectively a game better on the season.

Virginia

Here is another issue I covered in my comments on the last AP poll. As I wrote in the linked article, Virginia has taken 3 upset losses to unranked teams, one of them in their conference title game (to 9-5 Duke), and they have not beaten a ranked opponent, so putting them in the top 25 makes no sense at all. None. Zilch. As in, they have NO argument whatsoever for inclusion in any rational top 25.

It is simply not possible for any team to play ZERO ranked teams, lose THREE games, and still merit inclusion in any sensible top 25.

Moreover, Virginia should be ranked back behind 9-5 Duke, who beat them in the ACC title game. But I would rank Virginia back behind Southern Methodist, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, and Wake Forest as well (all outside the top 25, needless to say). Virginia went 1-3 against this group of teams.

James Madison

Also covered previously. James Madison is an impressive-looking 12-2, but they haven't beaten a rated team, and their 28-14 loss at unranked 9-4 Louisville looks pretty convincing to me. They didn't beat a team as good as that, so why should I believe that that loss was an upset? Frankly, I don't see any reason at all to pretend that that loss was an upset, and James Madison should therefore be ranked back behind Louisville, which is to say, nowhere near the top 25.

As I've been saying for 15 years, if a Little Big Team (minor conference team) wants to be ranked, they really need to beat the one unranked mediocre major conference team on their schedule. If they can't do that, I don't care how many wins over cupcakes they pile up.

North Texas > Navy

Yet another issue I've covered previously. This is pretty simple. 11-2 North Texas currently sits right behind 11-2 Navy, but UNT beat Navy 31-17 this season, and needless to say, they should be ranked higher. North Texas also performed better, as they had 3 close wins (touchdown or less), Navy 5.

Washington and Illinois

I've been saying that 9-4 Washington and 9-4 Illinois are underrated for weeks now, and since then they have both won their bowl games over teams the writers had voted higher in the AP poll (Washington over Boise State and Illinois over Tennessee). I expect that Washington and Illinois will end up just outside the final AP poll, but I think that both teams should be ranked in the bottom of the final top 25. They would make suitable replacements for Virginia and James Madison, who, as covered above, should not be ranked.

Washington and Illinois each took one upset loss to 4-8 Wisconsin, but Washington notched a big 42-25 win over Illinois, and Illinois notched a big upset win over a rated opponent, Southern Cal. Illinois also put a 45-19 road whipping on 9-5 Duke, who will be close to the top 25.

Compare them to Virginia, who, again, took 3 upset losses, and who lost the ACC title game to Duke. This is just no contest.

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