Texas > Texas A&M
Texas (#14) is 9-3 and Texas A&M (#7) is 11-1, but don't be fooled by those straight records:
Texas should be ranked ahead of Texas A&M due to defeating the
Aggies 27-17 this week. The only reason Texas has 3 losses and A&M
1 is because Texas played #1 Ohio State and #3 Georgia, while A&M
did not play any higher-rated
team. And because Texas A&M did not themselves play any team ranked
in the top 5, Texas' losses to Ohio State and Georgia should be
disregarded when comparing them to the Aggies. When you do that, both
teams have 1 loss, with Texas holding the head-to-head tie-breaker.
Texas did take one upset loss, to 4-8 Florida, but that is outweighed
by their head-to-head win over A&M, especially when you consider
that that head-to-head win came by more than a touchdown, and in the
last regular season game, giving it even more weight.
But the AP poll really
did Texas dirty, because they actually placed the Longhorns behind
THREE teams they defeated. In addition to #7 Texas A&M, #14 Texas
also beat #8 Oklahoma (10-2) and #13 Vanderbilt (10-2). And much like
Texas A&M, both Oklahoma and Vanderbilt have better straight
records than Texas does because, again, Texas played #1 Ohio State and
#3 Georgia, and neither Oklahoma nor Vanderbilt played any top 5
opponents.
The AP poll has always relied way too heavily on straight records, and
all that does is irrationally punish teams that play tougher schedules
and reward teams that play weaker schedules.
Miami (Florida)
Speaking
of rewarding teams that play weaker schedules, #12 Miami (Florida) may
be 10-2, but they have only played 1 ranked opponent, so #12 is a tad
high. Their losses both came to unranked teams (8-4 Louisville and 8-4
Southern Methodist), though they did make up for one of those with a
win over a higher-rated team, #9 Notre Dame (10-2). Once you move Texas
up ahead of Texas A&M, where they belong (as discussed above), the
two teams ranked right behind Miami, 10-2 Vanderbilt and 10-2 Utah,
both have better relevant records
than Miami does because neither of them took any upset losses. Miami,
Vanderbilt, and Utah may all be 10-2, but Vanderbilt played 3 ranked
opponents, Utah played 2, and, again, Miami played just 1. So this is
just another case of the AP poll rewarding a team for playing a weaker
schedule. Miami should be ranked back behind Utah.
Before moving on, I'll address Miami vs. Notre Dame, as I've seen a lot
of sports broadcasters the last few weeks question why 10-2 Notre Dame
should be rated higher than 10-2 Miami, given the fact that Miami
defeated Notre Dame 27-24 in their season-opener. Well, again, you
cannot just look at straight records:
Miami played 1 ranked team and Notre Dame played 4, so their schedules
were not at all comparable. Notre Dame's 2nd loss came to a
higher-rated team. Miami, again, took 2 upset losses to unranked teams,
and their head-to-head win over Notre Dame only makes up for one of
them. Both teams may be 10-2, but Notre Dame had a relevant record that
was effectively one game better than that of Miami for the season. So
Notre Dame should be ranked higher than Miami, as they are.
Virginia and Georgia Tech (and the ACC)
Miami
isn't the only overrated ACC team, and in fact #16 Virginia (10-2) and
#24 Georgia Tech (9-3) should not be rated at all. Like Miami, both
Virginia and Georgia Tech have taken 2 losses to unrated opponents, but
unlike Miami, neither Virginia nor Georgia Tech has beaten a rated team
at all (let alone a higher-rated one). As such, neither Virginia nor
Georgia Tech has accomplished anything worthy of a top 25 ranking, which
is why neither should be ranked.
It should come as little surprise that the ACC is easily the worst of
the 4 major conferences this season, posting a 41-25 record against
nonconference opponents (the Big 12 is 37-9 at #3).
James Madison
#19
James Madison is an impressive-looking 11-1, but they haven't played a
single rated team, and their one loss came 28-14 at 8-4 Louisville
(tied for #34 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP poll).
Louisville is by far the best team James Madison has played, and the
loss was decisive, so I don't see any reason at all to pretend that
that loss was an upset. James Madison should be ranked back behind
Louisville, which is to say, nowhere near the top 25.
Arizona and Houston
#22
Arizona (9-3), much like Virginia and Georgia Tech (discussed above),
took a pair of losses to unranked teams (9-3 Houston and 8-4 Iowa
State), and they did not defeat a ranked opponent, so much like
Virginia and Georgia Tech, Arizona should not be ranked.
9-3
Arizona should be dropped back behind 9-3 Houston, who beat them 31-28
in mid-October. Houston is currently sitting at #27 in the Others
Receiving Votes section of the AP poll, but even that is too high a
ranking for Houston. They have also taken a pair of losses to unranked
teams (4-8 West Virginia and 8-4 Texas Christian), and other than
Arizona (who should not be ranked), Houston has not beaten a ranked
opponent.
There are a bunch of unranked teams that took
fewer than 2 upset losses to unranked teams and that should be rated
higher than Houston, including 9-3 South Florida, 7-5 Louisiana State,
8-4 Washington, and 8-4 Illinois (all discussed below).
Tulane
#21 Tulane (10-2) is also overrated, but they have a better case than
do Virginia, Georgia Tech, and Arizona (as well as Houston), because
all those teams took 2 upset losses to unranked teams, while Tulane
suffered just one (48-26 at 6-6 Texas-San Antonio). As such, it is
possible that Tulane merits inclusion in a top 25, but if so, it is
just barely, and they should be rated more like #25 than #21.
Tulane's problem is that they have not beaten a ranked team, or even
one of the 16 teams listed in the Others Receiving Votes section of the
AP poll, so they haven't really given much of a reason to rate them in
a top 25. 9-2 Navy, who sits behind them at #23, took both their losses
to ranked teams, giving them a relevant record
that is effectively a game better than that of Tulane for the season,
and Navy has beaten 9-3 South Florida (#31), so there is no reasonable doubt
that Navy should be rated higher than Tulane.
Similarly, 8-4 Missouri (#25) and 8-4 Tennessee (#26) each took all 4
of their losses to rated teams, so they are each effectively a game
better than Tulane for the season as well. I'll discuss these two in
more detail below, as well as their fellow SEC team 7-5 Louisiana
State, who took all 5 of their losses to rated teams, and who therefore
also merits a higher rating than Tulane does.
Then there is 9-3 South Florida (#31 in the Others Receiving Votes
section of the AP poll). Like Tulane, fellow AAC member USF took 1
upset loss to an unrated team (8-4 Memphis), but unlike Tulane, USF
made up for their upset loss with a huge upset win over 11-1 North
Texas (#20). South Florida should definitely be rated higher than
Tulane as a result (USF also discussed further below).
Finally, we have 8-4 Washington and 8-4 Illinois, both of whom I would
rate higher than Tulane. On the other hand, Washington has taken an
upset loss, so this is a much closer case (Washington and Illinois
discussed further below).
Having said all of that, Tulane is playing #20 North Texas (11-1) in
the AAC Championship Game on Friday, and if they win that game, then
the sportswriters will have been proven largely right, and Tulane will
deserve a spot in the top 25. And if Tulane loses that game, they will
almost certainly fall out of the top 25 anyway. So this issue should
take care of itself one way or another.
Missouri and Tennessee
8-4
Missouri (#25) and 8-4 Tennessee (#26 in the Others Receiving Votes
section of the AP poll) are both underrated. As covered above,
Virginia, Georgia Tech, James Madison, Arizona, and Tulane have all
taken losses to unrated teams (3 of them took 2 such losses), while
Missouri and Tennessee each took all 4 of their losses to ranked teams
(and in fact all of their losses came to teams ranked in the top 13!).
Missouri and Tennessee therefore have better relevant records
than do any of those teams, and they should be rated higher than all of
those teams. Missouri and Tennessee have not beaten any rated
opponents, but neither have any of the aforementioned teams that
Missouri and Tennessee should be rated above.
The SEC, of course, is the nation's top conference, sitting at a blistering 56-8 against nonconference opponents.
South Florida
9-3
South Florida (#31 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP poll)
is also underrated. Like Virginia, Georgia Tech, James Madison,
Arizona, and Tulane, USF took a loss to an unrated team (Virginia, GT,
and AZ all took 2 such losses), but unlike all those teams, USF made up
for their upset loss with an upset win, and a huge one at that (63-36
at 11-1 North Texas, who is ranked #20). USF should therefore be rated
higher than all those teams. It need hardly be said that South Florida
should also be ranked higher than #28 Iowa (upset loss to unranked Iowa
State, no wins against rated teams), #29 UNLV ("upset" loss to unranked
Boise State, no wins against rated teams), and #30 New Mexico (2
"upset" losses to unrated teams, no wins against rated teams). I'll
discuss Iowa, UNLV, and New Mexico in more detail below.
Louisiana State
This is pretty much the same issue as Missouri and Tennessee, discussed
above. 7-5 Louisiana State did not receive a single vote in the AP
poll, but all 5 of their losses came to ranked teams (all came to teams
ranked in the top 13 in fact), so for the season LSU had a relevant record
that was effectively one or two games better than those posted by Virginia,
Georgia Tech, James Madison, Arizona, Tulane, Houston, Iowa, UNLV, and
New Mexico.
And as previously noted, the SEC is the nation's top conference, 56-8 against nonconference opponents.
Washington and Illinois
8-4
Washington (tied for #39 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP
poll) did take an upset loss to an unranked team (4-8 Wisconsin), but
that's still better than the teams that took 2 upset losses to unranked
teams (Virginia, Georgia Tech, Arizona, Houston, UNLV, and New Mexico),
and I think Washington deserves consideration for a spot in the bottom
of the top 25. They posted a 42-25 win over 8-4 Illinois that I think
is more impressive than what a lot of their competitors for the bottom
of the top 25 accomplished.
But speaking of Illinois
(#38), I think they deserve a spot in the bottom of the top 25 as well.
Like Washington, Illinois took an upset loss to 4-8 Wisconsin, but
Illinois made up for it with a big upset win over #17 Southern Cal.
Others Receiving Votes That Deserve Few or None
Here
are some teams that are hanging out in the Others Receiving Votes
section of the AP poll who are hoping to win their bowl games and sneak
into the final top 25, but unless they beat a highly-ranked team in
their
bowl game, I don't think any of these teams merit inclusion in a top
25, or even being as close as they are now. I discussed 9-3 Houston (#27) above, so we'll move down to...
8-4
Iowa (#28) took a loss to 8-4 Iowa State (discussed below), and I'd
think that they should be rated behind ISU. Iowa did post some very
impressively close losses to highly-ranked teams, but they just haven't
beaten any opponent that's worth anything, and I don't think a team
with an "upset" loss should be rated in the top 25 solely because they
had some close losses to good teams. Of course, I also doubt that
their "upset" loss to ISU was an upset.
10-2 UNLV (#29) took 2
"upset" losses, and they beat no one who is ranked or even close to
being ranked. They also performed consistently poorly (5 close wins
over unranked teams). UNLV isn't close to meriting a top 25 spot, nor
top 30. Moreover, I don't think that either of their "upset" losses
were upsets, and UNLV ought to be rated behind both of the teams that
beat them, 9-3 New Mexico (discussed next) and 8-4 Boise State. Now,
UNLV does get a second crack at Boise State in the MWC Championship
Game on Friday, but even if UNLV wins that game, they will still have 2
upset losses to unranked teams, and no wins over rated or even
near-rated teams, so even then UNLV would not merit a top 25 slot (or
top30).
9-3 New Mexico (#30) has taken 2 "upset" losses to unranked teams (3-9
San Jose State and 8-4 Boise State), so they should not be this close
to ranked either. And much like UNLV, I don't think that New Mexico's
loss to Boise State was an "upset," and they should therefore be ranked behind
Boise State (Boise State received no poll votes at all).
8-4
Southern Methodist (#32) owns a big win over #12 Miami (Florida), but
ALL FOUR of their losses came to teams that are not only unranked, but
nowhere to be found in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP
poll. Even if SMU draws a ranked opponent in their bowl game and wins
that game, I don't see how they could possibly be considered a legit
top 25 contender with 4 losses to unranked teams.
8-4 Iowa State (#33) may be fine at #33, or even a bit higher, with
nice wins over 9-3 Arizona, 8-4 Iowa, and 8-4 TCU, but ISU has also
taken 3 losses to unranked teams, so they are not a legit top 25
candidate.
Comments on the College Football Playoff Rankings 12-2-25
Over the years, more often than not, the College Football Playoff
committee's top 25 has been equal to or better than the AP poll's
rankings. The AP poll did a little better in their rankings than the
CFP committee did after the Thanksgiving weekend games in 2020 and 2021, but both years, the following week
the two ratings were more or less equal. Since then, the CFP committee
has done a slightly better job than the AP poll has. Until now.
Today's CFP rankings showed 4 small differences from the AP poll's
rankings in the top 17 (of both ratings), and the CFP committee made
the better choice in 3 of the 4. But in the bottom of the top 25s, the
AP poll destroyed the CFP
rankings. It's like the CFP committee couldn't be bothered to pay much
attention in the bottom of their top 25, and just penciled in the teams
they felt like penciling in, with little regard for what those teams
accomplished. There are 10 differences between the AP poll and CFP
rankings at the bottom, and the AP poll made the better choice in NINE
of the ten! So the total score is 12-4 in favor of the AP poll, a
massacre. And this committee is who we are letting decide who goes to
the playoffs and who doesn't?
I'm just going to go over the ten differences at the bottom of the top
25s. The rankings in the subheadings are from the AP poll (the ones
past #25 are from the Others Receiving Votes section of the poll).
#19 James Madison
The CFP rating for James Madison is #25, and as discussed in the
article above, James Madison should not be ranked, so this is the ONE
issue of the ten covered here that the CFP committee handled better
than the AP poll did.
#20 North Texas
The CFP rating of #24 may actually be closer to where North Texas
belongs than #20, but the teams the CFP committee has chosen to place
higher than them (Arizona, Tulane, Houston, Georgia Tech, and Iowa) are
all bad choices (legitimate choices would be Missouri, Tennessee, LSU,
USF, Washington, and Illinois). The AP poll makes none of those bad
choices. I am most confused by the CFP committee placing 10-2 AAC team
Tulane 4 places higher than 11-1 AAC team North Texas. The AP poll
correctly places North Texas ahead of Tulane. Hey, committee: let's wait until Tulane beats North Texas in the AAC title game on Friday to move them ahead of UNT.
#21 Tulane
CFP rating #20. See the North Texas bit above on why the AP poll ranked Tulane better.
#22 Arizona
CFP rating #18. As discussed in the article above, Arizona should not
be rated at all, so the AP poll, while wrong, did significantly better
on Arizona than the CFP committee did.
#23 Navy
The CFP committee did not rank 9-2 Navy at all. I touched on Navy when
discussing Tulane in the article above. Navy took no upset losses
(Tulane lost to a 6-6 team), and their win over 9-3 South Florida is
better than any Tulane win, so Navy ought to be ranked higher than
Tulane (as well as the aforementioned Houston, Georgia Tech, and Iowa,
all of whom suffered "upset" losses to unranked teams). The AP poll is
on to something here. Hey, committee: let's wait until Navy is upset by Army in their finale to exclude them from the top 25.
#24 Georgia Tech
CFP rating #22. As discussed in the article above, Georgia Tech should
not be rated at all, so the AP poll did a bit better here.
#25 Missouri
The CFP committee did not rank Missouri, and as discussed in the
article above, I think Missouri should be rated, so the AP poll did a
better job here as well.
#26 Tennessee
The CFP committee did not rank Tennessee, which may look the same as
the AP poll, but we can see that the CFP rankings do include Houston
and Iowa, both of whom the AP poll placed behind Tennessee in the
Others Receiving Votes section. As discussed in the article above, the
AP poll is correct on this one (but Tennessee should be rated).
#27 Houston
CFP rating #21. As discussed in the article above, Houston should not
even be rated as highly as #27, so the AP poll did a massively better
job on their rating of Houston than the CFP committee did.
#28 Iowa
CFP rating #23. As discussed in the article above ("Others Receiving
Votes That Deserve Few or None"), 8-4 Iowa should not be rated, and
probably belongs ranked behind 8-4 Iowa State. The AP poll's rating of
Iowa is already too high, but at least it is a great deal better than
the CFP committee's ranking of Iowa.
Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to to go look and see what goobers are on the committee this year. I'm guessing Kardashians?
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