Texas > Texas A&M
I'll just pretty much repeat what I wrote on this issue last week. Texas (#14) is 9-3 and Texas A&M (#7) is 11-1, but don't be fooled
by those straight records:
Texas should be ranked ahead of Texas A&M due to defeating the
Aggies 27-17 in their last game. The only reason Texas has 3 losses and A&M
1 is because Texas played #2 Georgia and #3 Ohio State, while A&M
did not play any higher-rated
team. And because Texas A&M did not themselves play any team ranked
in the top 5, Texas' losses to Georgia and Ohio State should be
disregarded when comparing them to the Aggies. When you do that, both
teams have 1 loss, with Texas holding the head-to-head tie-breaker.
Texas did take one upset loss, to 4-8 Florida, but that is outweighed
by their head-to-head win over A&M, especially when you consider
that that head-to-head win came by more than a touchdown, and in the
last regular season game, giving it even more weight.
But the AP poll really
did Texas dirty, because they actually placed the Longhorns behind
THREE teams they defeated. In addition to #7 Texas A&M, #14 Texas
also beat #8 Oklahoma (10-2) and #13 Vanderbilt (10-2). And much like
Texas A&M, both Oklahoma and Vanderbilt have better straight
records than Texas does because, again, Texas played #2 Georgia and #3
Ohio State, and neither Oklahoma nor Vanderbilt played any top 5
opponents (the College Football Playoff committee ranked Texas ahead of
Vanderbilt, so unlike the AP poll, they at least got that much right).
The AP poll has always relied way too heavily on straight records, and
all that does is irrationally punish teams that play tougher schedules
and reward teams that play weaker schedules.
Texas plays Michigan in the Citrus Bowl, and if they lose that game,
then A&M and Oklahoma should probably be rated higher than the
Longhorns despite the head-to-head losses, but even in that case, I
can't see Vanderbilt meriting a higher ranking than Texas.
Miami (Florida)
Also covered last week. #10 Miami (Florida) may
be 10-2, but they have only played 1 ranked opponent, and so #10 is much too
high. The big problem for Miami is that both of their losses came to unranked teams (8-4 Louisville and 8-4
Southern Methodist), though they did make up for one of those with a
win over a higher-rated team, #9 Notre Dame (10-2). All 5 teams ranked right behind Miami have better relevant records
than Miami does, and Miami should be ranked back behind 10-2 Utah, at
#15. Like Miami, #11 Alabama (10-3) defeated a higher-rated team (#2
Georgia), but unlike Miami, Alabama took just 1 upset loss (5-7 Florida
State), so Alabama was effectively 1 game better than Miami for the
season. #14 Texas (9-3), as covered above, defeated TWO teams ranked
higher than Miami, and they should not only be ranked higher than
Miami, but also Texas A&M. Once you move Texas up, where they
belong, Vanderbilt has no upset losses, and neither do BYU or Utah, so
Miami's 2 upset losses mean that they should be ranked behind all those
teams.
Again, #10 Miami (10-2) played 1 ranked opponent, while #11 Alabama
(10-3) and #14 Texas (9-3) played 5, #12 BYU (11-2) played 4, and #13
Vanderbilt (10-2) and #15 Utah (10-2) played 2, so this is
just another case of the AP poll rewarding a team for playing a weaker
schedule. Obviously, the playoffs and the bowl games can still have a
big impact on where Miami should be ranked relative to these teams, but
for now, to reiterate, I'd put them behind all of them.
Before moving on, I'll address Miami vs. Notre Dame, as this has been a
major point of contention in the media, and this issue ended up having
a huge impact on the playoffs. 10-2 Miami
defeated 10-2 Notre Dame 27-24 at home in their season-opener, and at
the end of the season (and only at the end), the College Football
Playoff committee moved Miami ahead of Notre Dame in their rankings
(thus putting Miami into the playoffs and not Notre Dame) due to the
head-to-head win. Well, again, you
cannot just look at straight records:
Miami played 1 ranked team and Notre Dame played 4, so their schedules
were not at all comparable. Notre Dame's 2nd loss came to a
higher-rated team. Miami, again, took 2 upset losses to unranked teams,
and their head-to-head win over Notre Dame only makes up for one of
them. Both teams may be 10-2, but Notre Dame had a relevant record that
was effectively one game better than that of Miami for the season. So
Notre Dame should
be ranked
higher than Miami, as they are in the AP poll. The CFP committee
screwed up, is worse than the AP poll, and this group of inept people
should not be in charge of deciding anything.
Virginia and Georgia Tech (and the ACC)
I also covered these 2 teams last week, and one of them actually got significantly worse since then! Miami
isn't the only overrated ACC team, and in fact #20 Virginia (10-3) and
#24 Georgia Tech (9-3) should not be rated at all. Virginia has taken 3
upset losses to unranked teams, one in their conference title game (to
8-5 Duke), and they have not beaten a ranked opponent, so putting them
in the top 25 makes no sense at all. None. Zilch. As in, they have NO
argument whatsoever for inclusion in any rational top 25. And beating
#25 Missouri (8-4) in the Gator Bowl would do nothing to change this
fact. It would just mean that Missouri should not be rated. But
Virginia would still have 3 upset losses, and Missouri has none, so one
head-to-head win doesn't even do enough for Virginia to deserve to be
rated higher than Missouri!
Like Miami, Georgia Tech has taken 2 losses to unrated opponents (7-5
NC State and 8-4 Pitt), but
unlike Miami, Georgia Tech has not beaten a rated team
at all (let alone a higher-rated one). As such, Georgia Tech has not
accomplished anything worthy of a top 25 ranking,
which
is why they should not be ranked. But at least they deserve a higher
rating than Virginia. Somewhere outside the top 25. On the other hand,
because they have just 2 upset losses and not 3 (like Virginia does),
Georgia Tech can merit inclusion in the final top 25 with a big bowl
win over #12 Brigham Young (but because BYU has taken no upset losses,
even in that case BYU should remain rated higher than GT).
It should come as little surprise that the ACC is easily the worst of
the 4 major conferences this season, posting a 41-25 record against
nonconference opponents (the Big 12 is 37-9 at #3).
Tulane
I covered #17 Tulane (11-2) last week,
but their rating situation has changed a lot since then due to a big
win over #23 North Texas in the AAC title game. They are still a bit
overrated, but moving them back behind #18 Michigan (9-3) will take
care of it. Tulane took an upset loss (48-26 at 6-6 Texas-San Antonio),
while Michigan did not (all 3 of their losses came to teams ranked
higher than Tulane), so Michigan has a relevant
record
that is effectively a game better than that of Tulane for the season.
I would personally rate a bunch more teams higher than Tulane:
8-4 Missouri, 8-4 Tennessee, 7-5 LSU, 8-4 Washington, and 8-4 Illinois
(more on all these teams below). But I think you can fairly rate North
Texas and Navy higher than those teams (as of now), and Tulane belongs
ranked ahead of UNT and Navy.
Playoff and bowl games, as always, can still have a big impact on the rateability of all involved teams here.
James Madison
Another team I covered last week. #19
James Madison is an impressive-looking 12-1, but they haven't played a
single rated team, and their one loss came 28-14 at 8-4 Louisville
(tied for #35 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the AP poll).
Louisville is by far the best team James Madison has played, and the
loss was decisive, so I don't see any reason at all to pretend that
that loss was an upset. James Madison should be ranked back behind
Louisville, which is to say, nowhere near the top 25.
Of course, if they beat Oregon in the playoffs, then yeah, they belong
in the final top 25. But if they don't, then I'll just be kicking James
Madison out of the final AP poll when I fix it in January.
Arizona and Houston
Yet more teams I covered last week. #21
Arizona (9-3), much like Georgia Tech (discussed above),
took a pair of losses to unranked teams (9-3 Houston and 8-4 Iowa
State), and they did not defeat a ranked opponent, so much like Georgia Tech, Arizona should not be ranked.
9-3
Arizona should be dropped back behind 9-3 Houston, who beat them 31-28
in mid-October. Houston is currently sitting at #26 in the Others
Receiving Votes section of the AP poll, but even that is too high a
ranking for Houston. They have also taken a pair of losses to unranked
teams (4-8 West Virginia and 8-4 Texas Christian), and other than
Arizona (who should not be ranked), Houston has not beaten a ranked
opponent.
There are a bunch of unranked teams that took
fewer than 2 upset losses to unranked teams and that should be rated
higher than Houston, including 8-4 Tennessee, 9-3 South Florida, 7-5 Louisiana State,
8-4 Washington, and 8-4 Illinois (all discussed below).
Houston does play LSU in the Texas Bowl, so beating them would
obviously mean that Houston should be ranked higher than LSU, but
Houston would still have 2 upset losses, so a win wouldn't otherwise
merit putting them into the final top 25. As such, if Houston does win
their bowl game, it just means I'll almost certainly have to be kicking
them out of the final AP poll top 25 when I fix it in January. Much
like Arizona (who plays unranked SMU in their bowl game).
North Texas > Navy
Finally, an issue I didn't
cover last week! 11-2 North Texas (#23) just dropped behind 9-2 Navy
(#22) this week, but UNT beat Navy 31-17 this season, and needless to
say, they should be ranked higher.
North Texas and Navy play unranked opponents in their bowl games (and
Navy also plays unranked Army next Saturday), and I think that a loss
in any of those games would be so damaging to not only the team that
lost, but to all of the AAC teams hoping to be ranked, that I would be
inclined to toss all of them out of a final top 25 (even Tulane, unless
they beat Ole Miss in the playoffs). The conference is too weak to
withstand another "upset" loss by one of its top teams. In such a case,
most of the teams covered next (though not South Florida, obviously)
would likely merit a higher ranking than any of the AAC teams.
Underrated Teams/Unrated Teams That Should Be Ranked
As covered last week,
here are 6 teams that I think are underrated, and that would be better
top 25 inclusions than many teams the AP poll currently ranks.
Obviously, the playoffs and bowl games can change these teams' rating situations quite a
bit.
Missouri and Tennessee
8-4
Missouri (#25) and 8-4 Tennessee (#28 in the Others Receiving Votes
section of the AP poll) are both underrated. As covered above,
Virginia, Georgia Tech, James Madison, and Arizona (as well as #26 Houston and #27 Iowa) have all
taken losses to unrated teams (3 of them took 2 such losses, and 1 took 3). Meanwhile,
Missouri and Tennessee each took all 4 of their losses to ranked teams
(and in fact all of their losses came to teams ranked in the top 13!).
Missouri and Tennessee therefore have better relevant records than
do any of those teams, and they should be rated higher than all of
those teams. Missouri and Tennessee have not beaten any rated
opponents, but neither have any of the aforementioned teams that
Missouri and Tennessee should be rated above (Houston did beat Arizona,
but as covered above, Arizona should not be ranked, and anyway, Houston
took 2 upset losses).
The SEC, of course, is the nation's top conference, sitting at a
blistering 56-8 against nonconference opponents.
Missouri plays Virginia in their bowl game, and I think that a loss
there would knock them out of top 25 contention (as covered above,
Virginia, with 3 upset losses, should not even be considered for a
final top 25 slot, regardless of whether or not they beat Missouri).
South Florida
9-3
South Florida (tied for #32 in the Others Receiving Votes section of
the AP
poll)
is ridiculously underrated. Like Virginia, Georgia Tech, James Madison,
and Arizona, USF took a loss to an unrated team (Virginia took 3 such
losses, and GT
and AZ took 2 such losses), but unlike all those teams, USF made up
for their upset loss with an upset win over a ranked team (63-36
at 11-2 North Texas, who is ranked #23). USF should therefore be rated
higher than all those teams. It need hardly be said that South Florida
should also be ranked higher than #26 Houston (2 upset losses to
unranked teams), #27 Iowa (upset loss to unranked Iowa
State, no wins against rated teams), and #29 New Mexico (2
"upset" losses to unrated teams). Even 9-4 Boise State is just ahead of
USF at #30, and they have a worse record, played in a far weaker
league, AND LOST to USF 34-7! Boise State being ranked ahead of USF is
just completely senseless.
Of course, if South Florida loses their bowl game to unranked Old
Dominion, then they deserve to be unranked (though even in that case
Boise State should still be ranked behind them).
Louisiana State
This is pretty much the same issue as Missouri and Tennessee, discussed
above. 7-5 Louisiana State did not receive a single vote in the AP
poll, but all 5 of their losses came to ranked teams (all came to teams
ranked in the top 13 in fact), so for the season LSU had a relevant record
that was effectively one to three games better than those posted by
Virginia,
Georgia Tech, James Madison, Arizona, Houston, Iowa,
New Mexico, Duke, Boise State, or SMU.
And as previously noted, the SEC is the nation's top conference, 56-8
against nonconference opponents.
LSU plays #26 Houston in their bowl game, and I don't think Houston
should be rated whether they win that game or not (as discussed above),
so if LSU loses to Houston, that also ends any reasonable claim LSU
might have to a spot in the final top 25.
Washington and Illinois
8-4
Washington (#38 in the Others Receiving Votes section of the
AP
poll) did take an upset loss to an unranked team (4-8 Wisconsin), but
that's still better than the teams that took 2 or more upset losses to unranked
teams (Virginia, Georgia Tech, Arizona, Houston, and New Mexico),
and I think Washington deserves consideration for a spot in the bottom
of the top 25. They posted a 42-25 win over 8-4 Illinois that I think
is more impressive than what a lot of their competitors for the bottom
of the top 25 accomplished.
But speaking of Illinois
(tied for #41), I think they deserve a spot in the bottom of the top 25 as well.
Like Washington, Illinois took an upset loss to 4-8 Wisconsin, but
Illinois made up for it with a big upset win over #16 Southern Cal.
Washington plays Boise State in their bowl game, and a loss there ends
their candidacy for the final top 25 (and Illinois would go down with
them).
Others Receiving Votes That Deserve Few or None
Here
are some teams that are hanging out in the Others Receiving Votes
section of the AP poll who are hoping to win their bowl games and sneak
into the final top 25, but unless they beat a highly-ranked team in
their
bowl game, I don't think any of these teams merit inclusion in a top
25, or even being as close as they are now. I discussed 9-3 Houston
(#26) above, so we'll move down to...
8-4
Iowa (#27) took a loss to 8-4 Iowa State, and I'd
think that they should be rated behind ISU (well out of the top 25). Iowa did post some very
impressively close losses to highly-ranked teams, but they just haven't
beaten any opponents that are worth anything, and I don't think a team
with an "upset" loss should be rated in the top 25 solely because they
had some close losses to good teams. Of course, I also doubt that
their "upset" loss to ISU was an upset. Now, if Iowa defeats Vanderbilt in their bowl game, then yes, they should be ranked.
9-3 New Mexico (#29) has taken 2 "upset" losses to unranked teams (3-9
San Jose State and 9-4 Boise State), so they should not be this close
to ranked. And much like Iowa's loss to Iowa State, I don't think that New Mexico's
loss to Boise State was an "upset," and they should therefore be ranked
behind
Boise State (discussed below).
8-5 Duke (#30) has also taken 2 "upset" losses to unranked teams (8-4 Illinois and 9-3 UConn), so they should not be this close
to ranked either. And much like we see in the previous 2 cases, I don't think that Duke's 45-19 home
loss to Illinois was an "upset," and they should therefore be ranked
behind Illinois (Illinois discussed above).
9-4 Boise State (#31) has taken 3 "upset" losses to unranked teams (9-3
USF, 8-4 Fresno State, and 9-3 San Diego State), so things are just
getting worse the further down we go. And, not to sound like a broken
record, but I don't think Boise State's 34-7 loss to South Florida was
an "upset," and Boise should definitely be ranked behind USF (as
discussed above).
10-3 UNLV (tied for #32) has a great-looking straight record, but they
have beaten no one worth any value at all, they have performed
consistently poorly, and their losses (twice to Boise State and once to
New Mexico) came to teams that should not be ranked (as previously
discussed).
8-4
Southern Methodist (#34) owns a big win over #12 Miami (Florida), but
ALL FOUR of their losses came to teams that are not only unranked, but
3 of them are nowhere to be found in the Others Receiving Votes section
of the AP
poll. SMU's bowl opponent is #21 Arizona, but as discussed above,
Arizona should not be ranked, and even beating a legit ranked opponent
should do nothing to move the needle on a team with 4 losses as ugly as
SMU's anyway.
Comments on the College Football Playoff RankingsThe last time the AP poll bettered the CFP committee's top 25 at the end of the regular season was 2016. But this year they have finally done it again.
I
would say that there are 11 relevant differences between the AP poll
and the CFP committee's top 25, and I would judge the AP poll's choice
as better in 7 of the 11. I'm not going to go over them all, but in
general, the CFP committee ranked Arizona, Houston, Georgia Tech, and
Iowa higher than the AP poll did, and given that I think none of those
teams should be ranked (as covered in the article above), obviously I
think the AP poll was correct to rank them all lower. The AP poll
ranked Navy and Missouri, and the CFP committee didn't, and I think
those teams should be ranked. The CFP's big win over the AP poll was
ranking Texas ahead of Vanderbilt (Texas having beaten Vanderbilt, this
should be a no-brainer).
But by far the most
consequential difference between the AP poll and the CFP top 25 was
where the 2 systems placed Notre Dame, and unfortunately, the system
that was wrong is the one that counts.
Miami and Notre Dame (and Alabama)
The CFP, much unlike the AP poll, infamously moved Miami (Florida) up
past Notre Dame all of a sudden and at the finish line, and that sends
Miami to the playoffs and Notre Dame home for the holidays. I discuss
this issue in detail in the article above, but the main point here is
that although both teams were 10-2, they were not equal because they
did not play equal schedules. Miami played 1 ranked team and Notre Dame
played 4, and BOTH of Miami's losses came to unranked teams. The
head-to-head win over Notre Dame only makes up for one of those losses.
Notre Dame absolutely should be ranked higher than Miami, and this
error on the part of the CFP committee is no small thing, given the
stakes.
But the AP poll would have been a superior ranking system to use for the playoffs for another reason:
where they ranked Alabama, which is #11. That ranking would have put
Alabama out of the playoffs, and regardless of whether Alabama was
better or worse than Notre Dame or Miami, this much is for sure:
it would definitely be better to have 10-2 Notre Dame (10- straight wins,
all in routs) and 10-2 Miami (only ACC team) in the playoffs than 10-3
Alabama, a FIFTH SEC team in the playoffs, with 3
losses, and whom we just watched get utterly dominated in their last
game. That last game caused the AP poll to drop Alabama where they did,
and that is what usually happens after a loss.
The CFP committee, on the other hand, did not drop Alabama a single
spot, despite watching them get drubbed 28-7 the same weekend. And that
is extremely unusual... how many times have we seen a team get
completely crushed, and not drop at all in the next CFP rankings?
So while moving Miami up past Notre Dame was a crime, I would say that
not dropping Alabama at all was even worse, and a clear sign that the
only priority of the CFP committee, and its only true purpose, is to
make sure that Alabama gets into the playoffs come hell or high water.
After all, the only other time the CFP committee did something like
this, suddenly in their last ranking, was 2 years ago, and it was also done to get Alabama (and the SEC in general) into the playoffs.
These people are either completely inept or corrupt. Either way, they
should NOT be deciding who goes to the playoffs. The AP poll would have
been a better decider in 2023 and this year.
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