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2016 TipTop 25 Week Nine

 Picking UNLV out of a hat CFB 2016

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that UNLV was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but in week two they were drubbed 42-21 at unranked UCLA, ending their brief stay at the top.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason. Eventually, where they were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Alabama Still #1

MS Paint of Alabama player 2016

Alabama had not been ranked in our preseason top 50, but they opened the season with a 52-6 win over Southern Cal (#13 in the preseason), moving them into our week 1 rankings at #13, and at this point they have beaten 5 teams in our current top 40, plus another 2 teams with winning records, and only one of their 8 wins has even been close. Alabama first moved to #1 last week, and they look like they'll finish there.

Top 25 After Week Nine Games

Although I ignore all the teams' histories and reputations when ranking them, as the season progresses we still see the same thing happen every year: the major conference teams rise to the top, and one by one, the minor conference teams fall out of the top 25. At this point, all but 2 of our top 25 teams are from major conferences. The holdouts are 8-0 Western Michigan (#8) and 6-1 Troy (#23). This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:
Team Record LW This Week's Result
#1 Alabama 8-0 1 Did not play
#2 Michigan 8-0 2 Won 32-23 at Michigan State
#3 Texas A&M 7-1 3 Won 52-10 over New Mexico State
#4 Clemson 8-0 4 Won 37-34 at #20 Florida State (now #17)
#5 Louisville 7-1 5 Won 32-25 at Virginia
#6 Washington 8-0 7 Won 31-24 at #35 Utah
#7 Auburn 6-2 9 Won 40-29 at #26 Mississippi
#8 Western Michigan 8-0 10 Did not play
#9 Baylor 6-1 6 Lost 35-34 at unrated Texas
#10 Oklahoma State 6-2 14 Won 37-20 over #12 West Virginia (now #22)
#11 Tennessee 5-3 8 Lost 24-21 at unrated South Carolina
#12 Virginia Tech 6-2 15 Won 39-36 at #17 Pittsburgh
#13 North Carolina 6-2 16 Did not play
#14 Pittsburgh 5-3 17 Lost 39-36 to #15 Virginia Tech
#15 Penn State 6-2 18 Won 62-24 at Purdue
#16 Ohio State 7-1 19 Won 24-20 over Northwestern
#17 Florida State 5-3 20 Lost 37-34 to #4 Clemson
#18 Wisconsin 6-2 23 Won 23-17 in overtime over #11 Nebraska
#19 Nebraska 7-1 11 Lost 23-17 in overtime at #23 Wisconsin
#20 Louisiana State 5-2 24 Did not play
#21 Colorado 6-2 28 Did not play
#22 West Virginia 6-1 12 Lost 37-20 at #14 Oklahoma State
#23 Troy 6-1 27 Did not play
#24 Arkansas 5-3 17 Did not play
#25 Florida 6-1 29 Won 24-10 over Georgia (at neutral field)

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

This week 6-1 Baylor took an upset loss at unrated Texas (4-4), but they don't fall far because of their one big win from earlier this season, 35-24 over #10 Oklahoma State (who beat #14 Pitt, who beat #15 PSU, who beat #16 Ohio State). Similarly, 5-3 Tennessee also took a loss at an unrated opponent, but they also don't fall far. Keeping the Volunteers at #11 is their best win, 45-24 over #12 Virginia Tech. Tennessee's other 2 losses came to #1 Alabama and #3 Texas A&M.

6-2 Colorado did not play, but I'm moving them into the top 25 because they have a strong record, and more importantly, they had been rated #4 in the preseason. So you can see that the preseason ratings still have some minor effect on this top 25.

6-1 Troy was not ranked in the preseason, but they have not taken any upset losses (their one loss came just 30-24 at #4 Clemson), their straight record is very strong, and as Southern Miss continues to win (they are now 5-3 and will probably finish 9-3), Troy's win over them looks better and better. So I've moved Troy into the rankings as well.

Finally, there is 6-1 Florida, whom I have also moved into the top 25 because of a very strong straight record (their one loss came to #11 Tennessee).

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Mississippi
#27 Tulsa
#28 Memphis
#29 Utah
#30 Wyoming
#31 Boise State
#32 Washington State
#33 Stanford
#34 Southern Cal
#35 Temple
#36 South Florida
#37 Navy
#38 Houston
#39 Oklahoma
#40 San Diego State

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

This week, #1 Alabama travels to #20 Louisiana State, #16 Ohio State hosts #19 Nebraska, and #24 Arkansas hosts #25 Florida. Upset potential?: 5-3 Maryland at #2 Michigan, #10 Oklahoma State at 5-3 Kansas State, 5-3 Georgia Tech at #13 North Carolina, #14 Pittsburgh at 4-4 Miami (Florida), 5-3 Iowa at #15 Penn State, and #18 Wisconsin at 4-4 Northwestern.

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