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2016 TipTop 25 Week One

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that UNLV was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, and after their impressive 63-13 opener, they still remain our #1 team!

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason. Eventually, where they were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Top 25 After Week One Games

Last year, 7 of our top 25 preseason teams were upset in the first week, including 3 of our top 6, but this year, only 4 of our top 25 teams took a loss in the opening week, and only 1 of the top 12. After the opening week's games, this week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	UNLV	1-0	1	Won 63-13 over an FCS team
#2	Syracuse	1-0	3	Won 33-7 over an FCS team
#3	Colorado	1-0	4	Won 44-7 over #39 Colorado State in Denver
#4	Georgia	1-0	5	Won 33-24 over unrated North Carolina in Atlanta
#5	Stanford	1-0	6	Won 26-13 over unrated Kansas State
#6	Marshall	0-0	8	Did not play
#7	Middle Tennessee	1-0	11	Won 55-0 over an FCS team
#8	Louisville	1-0	12	Won 70-14 over an FCS team
#9	Tulsa	1-0	14	Won 45-10 over unrated San Jose State
#10	Baylor	1-0	16	Won 55-7 over an FCS team
#11	Wyoming	1-0	36	Won 40-34 in overtime over #2 Northern Illinois
#12	Ohio State	1-0	37	Won 77-10 over #18 Bowling Green
#13	Alabama	1-0	Unrated	Won 52-6 over #13 Southern Cal
#14	Houston	1-0	Unrated	Won 33-23 over #17 Oklahoma
#15	Northern Illinois	0-1	2	Lost 40-34 in overtime at #36 Wyoming (now #11)
#16	Texas	1-0	7	Won 50-47 in overtime over #48 Notre Dame
#17	Notre Dame	0-1	48	Lost 50-47 in overtime at #7 Texas
#18	Indiana	1-0	20	Won 34-13 at Florida International
#19	Memphis	1-0	21	Won 35-17 over an FCS team
#20	Toledo	1-0	23	Won 31-10 at #50 Arkansas State
#21	South Alabama	1-0	15	Won 21-20 at unrated Mississippi State
#22	Arkansas	1-0	10	Won 21-20 over unrated Louisiana Tech
#23	Georgia Tech	1-0	19	Won 17-14 over unrated Boston College in Ireland
#24	Michigan	1-0	24	Won 63-3 over unrated Hawaii
#25	Nebraska	1-0	27	Won 43-10 over unrated Fresno State

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

It's not just losing that will cause a team to drop in the rankings: struggling to beat an FCS team or an unranked (in top 50) FBS team will do it too. So Nevada, who had been ranked #9, is out of the rankings because they needed overtime to beat an FCS team at home. And Arkansas, who had been rated #10, drops to #22 after beating unranked Louisiana Tech at home by just 1 point.

In addition to Nevada, the following teams fall out of the top 25 this week: Southern Cal (had been #13, lost 52-6 at Alabama), Oklahoma (had been #17, lost 33-23 at Houston), Bowling Green (had been #18, lost 77-10 at Ohio State), Texas State (had been #22, won 56-54 in overtime at unranked Ohio), and Western Michigan (had been #25, won 22-21 at unranked Northwestern).

This is the only top 25 you'll see where Texas actually drops after their win over Notre Dame. That's because Texas was #7, Notre Dame #48, and Texas only won 50-47 in overtime at home.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 UTEP
#27 Penn State
#28 Florida State
#29 Texas State
#30 Western Michigan
#31 Air Force
#32 Kansas
#33 Washington
#34 Utah
#35 California
#36 San Diego State
#37 Southern Miss
#38 Texas Tech
#39 Oregon
#40 Ball State
#41 West Virginia
#42 Utah State
#43 Brigham Young

Also, these 6 teams all won big over FBS opponents this week, so bear watching: Boise State, Western Kentucky, Southern Methodist, Army, Iowa, and Florida.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

The big game this week is #2 Syracuse hosting #8 Louisville on Friday. We've also got #9 Tulsa at #12 Ohio State, and #11 Wyoming at #25 Nebraska. Join me next week as we continue to hone the top 25 that was born from my magic hat.

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