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2016 TipTop 25 Week Eight

 Picking UNLV out of a hat CFB 2016

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that UNLV was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but in week two they were drubbed 42-21 at unranked UCLA, ending their brief stay at the top.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason. Eventually, where they were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Our New #1

MS Paint of Alabama player 2016

Previous #1 Ohio State was upset 24-21 at previously unrated Penn State on Saturday, but they would have been replaced at the top of the rankings this week anyway, because Alabama, previously rated #3, smashed #5 Texas A&M 33-14 to cap off a terrific run of 3 straight smashings of top 25 opponents. Alabama had not been ranked in our preseason top 50, but they opened the season with a 52-6 win over Southern Cal (#13 in the preseason), moving them into our week 1 rankings at #13, and at this point they have beaten 5 teams in our current top 40, with only one of those games being close. So Alabama is our new #1, and they sure look like they're going to remain there to the end.

Top 25 After Week Eight Games

In one way, our top 25 has gotten remarkably stable: for the third week in a row, we've set a new low for number of top 25 teams taking losses to lower-ranked teams. This week only 4 teams in our top 25 took upset losses, one fewer than we saw last week. On the other hand, previous #1 Ohio State's upset loss at previously unrated Penn State has a gigantic impact on this week's top 25, extending well beyond just those 2 teams (details in the next subsection). This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:
Team Record LW This Week's Result
#1 Alabama 8-0 3 Won 33-14 over #5 Texas A&M
#2 Michigan 7-0 2 Won 41-8 over Illinois
#3 Texas A&M 6-1 5 Lost 33-14 at #3 Alabama
#4 Clemson 7-0 6 Did not play
#5 Louisville 6-1 7 Won 54-13 over North Carolina State
#6 Baylor 6-0 8 Did not play
#7 Washington 7-0 4 Won 41-17 over Oregon State
#8 Tennessee 5-2 9 Did not play
#9 Auburn 5-2 10 Won 56-3 over #13 Arkansas
#10 Western Michigan 8-0 11 Won 45-31 over Eastern Michigan
#11 Nebraska 7-0 14 Won 27-14 over Purdue
#12 West Virginia 6-0 24 Won 34-10 over #29 Texas Christian
#13 Boise State 7-0 19 Won 28-27 over Brigham Young
#14 Oklahoma State 5-2 Unrated Won 44-20 at Kansas
#15 Virginia Tech 5-2 25 Won 37-16 over #28 Miami (Florida)
#16 North Carolina 6-2 26 Won 35-14 at Virginia
#17 Pittsburgh 5-2 Unrated Did not play
#18 Penn State 5-2 Unrated Won 24-21 over #1 Ohio State (now #19)
#19 Ohio State 6-1 1 Lost 24-21 at unrated Penn State
#20 Florida State 5-2 27 Did not play
#21 Miami (Florida) 4-3 28 Lost 37-16 at #25 Virginia Tech (now #15)
#22 Georgia Tech 4-3 Unrated Did not play
#23 Wisconsin 5-2 12 Won 17-9 at Iowa
#24 Louisiana State 5-2 17 Won 38-21 over #15 Mississippi
#25 Arkansas 5-3 13 Lost 56-3 at #10 Auburn

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

As noted above, previous #1 Ohio State's upset loss at previously unrated Penn State has a gigantic impact on this week's top 25, and not just because 5-2 Penn State now enters the top 25 and 6-1 Ohio State plummets back behind them. Also entering the top 25 are 5-2 Pittsburgh, who had previously beaten Penn State, and 5-2 Oklahoma State, who had previously beaten Pittsburgh. Furthermore, 6-0 West Virginia, who had previously beaten Oklahoma State, now has a quality win, and they jump from #24 to #12.

Pittsburgh's rise also boosts other ACC teams in the ratings: #15 Virginia Tech, #16 North Carolina, #20 Florida State, #21 Miami (Florida), and #22 Georgia Tech all see significant jumps this week. Georgia Tech lost by just 37-34 at Pittsburgh earlier in the season, but the main reason they are rated now is because they were rated #19 in the preseason. So those preseason ratings still have some effect.

In yet another side effect of Ohio State's upset loss, Wisconsin, who had lost to Ohio State the previous week, falls from #12 to #23. And LSU, who had lost to Wisconsin in the opening week, falls with them, from #17 to #24, while Mississippi, who lost 38-21 at LSU this week, falls out of the top 25 entirely.

And one note on a move that has nothing to do with Ohio State's loss: Washington remains unbeaten, but their schedule looks weaker by the week, and they drop from #4 to #7 because of that.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Mississippi
#27 Troy
#28 Colorado
#29 Florida
#30 Navy
#31 Memphis
#32 Toledo
#33 Washington State
#34 Stanford
#35 Utah
#36 Southern Cal
#37 Houston
#38 Tulsa
#39 Oklahoma
#40 San Diego State

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

We once again have a lot of action amongst our top 25 teams this week:

#4 Clemson at #20 Florida State
#11 Nebraska at #23 Wisconsin
#12 West Virginia at #14 Oklahoma State
#15 Virginia Tech at #17 Pittsburgh

On top of all that, we have #7 Washington at #35 Utah, #9 Auburn at #26 Mississippi, #38 Tulsa at #31 Memphis, #13 Boise State at 5-2 Wyoming, and #30 Navy at 6-2 South Florida.

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