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2016 TipTop 25 Week Four

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that UNLV was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but in week two they were drubbed 42-21 at previously unranked UCLA, ending their brief stay at the top.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason. Eventually, where they were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Louisville Still #1

I pulled Louisville out of my hat for the #12 slot in the preseason, and they moved up to #8 after the first week. They jumped all the way to #1 after week two, having destroyed previous #2 Syracuse 62-28 on the road. The next week they proved their #1 ranking to be valid by embarrassing previous #21 Florida State 63-20, and this week they routed Marshall 59-28. That's the first time this season they haven't scored 60, and they only missed by 1 point. If you're going to rank teams based solely on what they've done this season, there's no reason Louisville should not be ranked #1 at this point. But their next game is at 4-0 Clemson, ranked #5 in the AP poll (but still unranked here). Will this be the end of their amazing run?

Top 25 After Week Four Games

Nine of our ranked teams from last week took losses, just like the previous week, and on top of that another 5 teams had close wins over unranked opponents, so we have another big shake-up in the rankings this week. However, our top 10 remained relatively stable. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Louisville	4-0	1	Won 59-28 over Marshall
#2	Michigan	4-0	2	Won 49-20 over Penn State
#3	Ohio State	3-0	3	Did not play
#4	Stanford	3-0	4	Won 22-13 over #22 UCLA (now unranked)
#5	Baylor	4-0	5	Won 35-24 over Oklahoma State
#6	Houston	4-0	7	Won 64-3 at Texas State
#7	Memphis	3-0	8	Won 77-3 over Bowling Green
#8	Toledo	3-0	9	Did not play
#9	Colorado	3-1	Unranked	Won 41-38 at #19 Oregon
#10	Wake Forest	4-0	Unranked	Won 33-28 at #6 Indiana
#11	Indiana	2-1	6	Lost 33-28 to unranked Wake Forest (now #10)
#12	Western Michigan	4-0	Unranked	Won 49-31 over Georgia Southern
#13	Air Force	3-0	13	Won 27-20 at Utah State
#14	Nebraska	4-0	11	Won 24-13 at Northwestern
#15	Washington	4-0	14	Won 35-28 in overtime at Arizona
#16	San Diego State	3-0	15	Did not play
#17	Arizona State	4-0	Unranked	Won 51-41 over #16 Cal
#18	California	2-2	16	Lost 51-41 at unranked Arizona State (now #16)
#19	Texas	2-1	17	Did not play
#20	Texas A&M	4-0	21	Won 45-24 over Arkansas
#21	Utah	4-0	18	Won 31-27 over Southern Cal
#22	Oregon	2-2	19	Lost 41-38 to unranked Colorado (now #9)
#23	West Virginia	3-0	24	Won 35-32 over Brigham Young
#24	Florida State	3-1	Unranked	Won 55-35 at #12 South Florida (now unranked)
#25	Alabama	4-0	Unranked	Won 48-0 over Kent State

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

The big news this week is previously unranked Colorado coming in all the way at #9 after winning 41-38 at #19 Oregon. Obviously that result alone did not propel Colorado all the way to #9. It happened primarily because Colorado had been ranked #4 in the preseason. After they were beaten by then-#20 Michigan 45-28, they dropped out of the rankings entirely. But now Michigan is #2, and every team after the top 8 has had at least one weak result, so Colorado beating a ranked team on the road by any score is enough to bring them back. They have now actually accomplished something to go along with their very high preseason ranking.

Wake Forest makes a similar move, from unranked all the way to #10. Unlike Colorado, Wake Forest was not ranked in the preseason, but this week they beat previous #6 Indiana on the road, and that plus a 4-0 record puts them in the top 10.

Western Michigan moves from unranked all the way to #12, and their story is more similar to that of Colorado. WMU had been ranked #25 in the preseason, but they fell out after a close win at unranked (in top 50) Northwestern in the first week. However, everyone has had a poor result since then, and WMU is now 4-0 with no more close games since. Unlike Colorado, they haven't actually accomplished anything yet, but at 4-0, we'll give them the benefit of the doubt, since they were ranked in the preseason and are still unbeaten.

Last week in this section I discussed the dropping out of Florida State and Alabama. Well, they're back, thanks to FSU's 55-35 win at previous #12 South Florida.

Finally, a word on why 4-0 Clemson and 4-0 Wisconsin, ranked highly in the AP poll, are not ranked here. The reason is that neither was ranked in my random top 50 to start the season, and both have posted 2 close wins over unranked opponents. But this week, Clemson takes on #1 Louisville and Wisconsin bouts with #2 Michigan, representing a big chance for both to make their mark here.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Mississippi
#27 Miami (Florida)
#28 Tennessee
#29 Boise State

Any unbeaten team is also on our radar at this point (such as Clemson and Wisconsin).

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

As noted, #1 Louisville plays at 4-0 Clemson this week, and #2 Michigan hosts 4-0 Wisconsin, and while those opponents are unranked here, they are very highly ranked in the AP poll, and this week is their big chance to make a splash in this top 25.

The big games between ranked teams in the TipTop 25 are out west this week: #4 Stanford at #15 Washington and #21 Utah at #18 Cal.

In addition, #7 Memphis travels to #26 Mississippi.

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