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2016 TipTop 25 Week Three

 Picking UNLV out of a hat CFB 2016

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that UNLV was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but in week two they were drubbed 42-21 at previously unranked UCLA, ending their stay at the top.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason. Eventually, where they were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Louisville Still #1

MS Paint of Louisville player 2016

I pulled Louisville out of my hat for the #12 slot in the preseason, and they moved up to #8 after the first week. They jumped all the way to #1 after week two, having destroyed previous #2 Syracuse 62-28 on the road. This week they proved their #1 ranking to be valid by destroying previous #21 Florida State 63-20.

Top 25 After Week Three Games

Nine of our ranked teams from last week took losses, so we have another big shake-up in the rankings this week. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:
Team Record LW This Week's Result
#1 Louisville 3-0 1 Won 63-20 over #21 Florida State
#2 Michigan 3-0 20 Won 45-28 over #2 Colorado
#3 Ohio State 3-0 3 Won 45-24 at Oklahoma
#4 Stanford 2-0 4 Won 27-10 over #24 Southern Cal
#5 Baylor 3-0 6 Won 38-10 at Rice
#6 Indiana 2-0 15 Did not play
#7 Houston 3-0 8 Won 40-16 at Cincinnati
#8 Memphis 2-0 17 Won 43-7 over Kansas
#9 Toledo 3-0 18 Won 52-17 over Fresno State
#10 Georgia Tech 3-0 19 Won 38-7 over Vanderbilt
#11 Nebraska 3-0 13 Won 35-32 over #36 Oregon (now #19)
#12 South Florida 3-0 14 Won 45-20 at Syracuse
#13 Air Force 2-0 29 Did not play
#14 Washington 3-0 30 Won 41-3 over Portland State
#15 San Diego State 3-0 32 Won 42-28 at Northern Illinois
#16 California 2-1 38 Won 50-43 over #9 Texas
#17 Texas 2-1 9 Lost 50-43 at #38 Cal (now #16)
#18 Utah 3-0 31 Won 34-17 at San Jose State
#19 Oregon 2-1 36 Lost 35-32 at #13 Nebraska
#20 Michigan State 2-0 Unranked Won 36-28 at #10 Notre Dame
#21 Texas A&M 3-0 11 Won 29-16 at Auburn
#22 UCLA 2-1 12 Won 17-14 at #41 Brigham Young
#23 Ball State 2-1 39 Won 41-14 over an FCS team
#24 West Virginia 2-0 40 Did not play
#25 Florida 3-0 Unranked Won 32-0 over North Texas

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

#1 Louisville's 63-20 obliteration of previous #21 Florida State didn't just knock FSU out of the rankings: it also had a hand in knocking previous #7 Alabama out of the rankings, despite the Tide still being 3-0. That's because FSU had already beaten Mississippi 45-34, and this week Alabama only beat Mississippi 48-43. That one weak result probably wouldn't have knocked Bama out had they been ranked in the preseason, but they were not even ranked in the preseason top 50, so they don't get the benefit of the doubt that preseason ranked teams get.

Texas A&M also dropped, from #11 to #21, despite being 3-0. That's because UCLA struggled to beat previous #41 BYU 17-14 this week, and A&M needed overtime to beat UCLA in the opening week.

Texas A&M comes roaring into the top 25 at #11, but it's not because they annihilated an FCS team this week. It's because they beat UCLA in overtime in week one, which matters because this week UCLA defeated our previous #1 UNLV 42-21. UCLA comes in right behind A&M at #12.

Close to the Top 25

This week we only have one team that is next in line to be ranked:

#26 Army

Army has beaten 3 FBS foes by more than a touchdown each. Also on our radar is 3-0 Miami-Florida.

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

We only have one game that features ranked opponents this week, #4 Stanford at #22 UCLA.

But we have a bunch of games that are likely to impact our ratings next week: Clemson at #10 Georgia Tech, Florida State at #12 South Florida, and #16 Cal at Arizona State, just to name a few.

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