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2016 TipTop 25 Week Eleven

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that UNLV was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but in week two they were drubbed 42-21 at unranked UCLA, ending their brief stay at the top.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that their rankings are based only on what they do this season and, to a lesser degree each week, on where they were ranked in the preseason. Eventually, where they were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Alabama Still #1

Alabama had not been ranked in our preseason top 50, but they opened the season with a 52-6 win over Southern Cal (#13 in the preseason), moving them into our week 1 rankings at #13, and at this point they have beaten 6 teams in our current top 27, with only one of their 10 wins even being close (touchdown or less). Their opponents are 58-42. This week they won 51-3 over 4-6 Mississippi State.

Top 25 After Week Eleven Games

What a cataclysmic week we had! Upsets hit the list from top to bottom: 9 teams from last week's top 25 were upset by lower-ranked teams over the weekend, and needless to say, that is the most we've seen this season. Even the next team in line, #26 Wyoming, took an upset loss. The result is a huge shake-up in the top 25 this week, but surprisingly, our top 5 remains the same as it had been last week (explanations below). This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Alabama	10-0	1	Won 51-3 over Mississippi State
#2	Michigan	9-1	2	Lost 14-13 at unrated Iowa
#3	Clemson	9-1	3	Lost 43-42 to #42 Pittsburgh
#4	Louisville	9-1	4	Won 44-12 over Wake Forest
#5	Western Michigan	10-0	5	Won 37-21 at Kent State
#6	Colorado	8-2	20	Won 49-24 at Arizona
#7	Southern Cal	7-3	30	Won 26-13 at #6 Washington
#8	Washington	9-1	6	Lost 26-13 to #30 Southern Cal
#9	Stanford	7-3	29	Won 52-27 at Oregon
#10	Utah	8-2	25	Won 49-26 at Arizona State
#11	Penn State	8-2	7	Won 45-31 at Indiana
#12	Ohio State	9-1	8	Won 62-3 at Maryland
#13	Wisconsin	8-2	9	Won 48-3 over Illinois
#14	Florida State	7-3	19	Won 45-7 over Boston College
#15	South Florida	8-2	32	Won 49-42 at #24 Memphis
#16	Navy	7-2	33	Won 42-40 over #23 Tulsa
#17	Houston	8-2	34	Won 30-18 over Tulane
#18	Tulsa	7-3	23	Lost 42-40 at #33 Navy (now #16)
#19	Oklahoma	8-2	35	Won 45-24 over Baylor
#20	Nebraska	8-2	14	Won 24-17 over Minnesota
#21	Texas A&M	7-3	10	Lost 29-28 to #22 Mississippi
#22	Auburn	7-3	11	Lost 13-7 at unrated Georgia
#23	Louisiana State	6-3	12	Won 38-10 at #13 Arkansas
#24	Arkansas	6-4	13	Lost 38-10 to #12 Louisiana State
#25	Mississippi	5-5	22	Won 29-28 at #10 Texas A&M

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

#2 Michigan and #3 Clemson each took their first loss of the season this week, and each to an unrated opponent, but they remain ranked #2 and #3 this week because Clemson's earlier victory over #4 Louisville keeps them cemented ahead of the Cardinals. Until they take a second upset loss, at least.

Outside of the top 5, however, the storm of upsets we saw this week causes a huge impact on the rest of the rankings. Half of our top 25 teams now own a loss to a lower-rated team, and due to this week's carnage in particular, we need to basically start over and reassess everything. And because of that, our preseason ratings matter more now than they have in weeks. And because of that, the PAC 12 sees a huge boost in the ratings.

You see, in the preseason ratings, Colorado was ranked #4, Stanford #6, and Southern Cal #13. Even Utah was ranked #31, which matters because Penn State was #33 and Ohio State #37. And that is primarily why we now have 8-2 Colorado #6, 7-3 Southern Cal #7, 9-1 Washington #8, 7-3 Stanford #9, 8-2 Utah #10, 8-2 Penn State #11, and 9-1 Ohio State #12. The fact that 4 of those PAC 12 teams have losses to lower-rated teams doesn't matter so much now that so many teams in our top 25 have suffered the same (including Penn State, who has an upset loss to unrated Pitt).

As for Ohio State, they certainly look like the #2 team at this point, and putting them there would be a viable option, but head-to-head is paramount to me, which is why I am keeping them ranked behind Penn State. Obviously if Ohio State wins out, they will have beaten #2 Michigan, who beat Penn State, and that will likely vault the Buckeyes near the top of the list. Where they probably belong. Still, note that if Ohio State and Penn State both win out, Penn State will go to the Big 10 championship game and Ohio State will not!

Four American Athletic Conference teams now occupy slots #15 to #18: 8-2 South Florida, 7-2 Navy, 8-2 Houston, and 7-3 Tulsa. Related to that, Oklahoma enters the top 25 at #19. The reasoning for all this is similar to that for why the PAC 12 had a group of teams rise up: Tulsa was rated #14 in the preseason, Oklahoma #17 (both teams have lost to current #17 Houston, who lost to #16 Navy, who lost to #15 South Florida). In addition, South Florida and Navy each earned upset wins over previously-rated teams this week.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Memphis
#27 Tennessee
#28 Florida
#29 Georgia
#30 North Carolina
#31 Virginia Tech
#32 Pittsburgh
#33 Miami (Florida)
#34 Georgia Tech
#35 Temple
#36 Oklahoma State
#37 West Virginia
#38 Kansas State
#39 Troy
#40 Texas
#41 Boise State
#42 Washington State
#43 Appalachian State
#44 San Diego State
#45 Wyoming
#46 Air Force

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

This week we only have 1 game pitting top 25 teams against each other: #4 Louisville visiting #17 Houston on Thursday night. In other games of note, #3 Clemson visits 6-4 Wake Forest, #6 Colorado hosts #42 Washington State (who looks to be far better than #42, and this is a big chance for them to prove it), #19 Oklahoma visits #37 West Virginia (who is 8-1, albeit against an awful schedule), #23 LSU hosts #28 Florida, #36 Oklahoma State visits 5-4 Texas Christian, #38 Kansas State visits 6-3 Baylor, and #44 San Diego State visits #45 Wyoming.

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