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2016 TipTop 25 Week Ten

Welcome back to the college football ranking system that began with a preseason top 25 that was based solely on picking teams at random out of a hat, as shown above. You can see that UNLV was selected first, thereby securing our preseason #1 slot, but in week two they were drubbed 42-21 at unranked UCLA, ending their brief stay at the top.

As the games are played, I am also ranking teams completely blind to their histories and "name" value, so that they are ranked solely based on what they do this season and, for now at least, on where they were ranked in the preseason. Eventually, where they were ranked in the preseason should have little or no impact on their current rankings.

All FBS teams are treated the same here, but this ranking assumes that FCS teams are a level below, and therefore it is unacceptable for a ranked FBS team to struggle with an FCS team, let alone lose. On the other hand, beating an FCS team, regardless of how "impressive" the score, means nothing and is treated the same as though the winner did not play a game at all.

Alabama Still #1

Alabama had not been ranked in our preseason top 50, but they opened the season with a 52-6 win over Southern Cal (#13 in the preseason), moving them into our week 1 rankings at #13, and at this point they have beaten 5 teams in our current top 25, plus another 2 teams with winning records, and only one of their 9 wins has even been close. This week they won 10-0 at 5-3 Louisiana State (now ranked #12).

Top 25 After Week Ten Games

Only 3 teams from last week's top 25 were upset by lower-ranked teams this week, and that is a new season-low. Despite that seeming stability, however, this week's top 25 sees a lot of shifting around, and four new teams enter the list this week. This week's TipTop 25 is as follows:

	Team	Record	LW	This Week's Result
#1	Alabama	9-0	1	Won 10-0 at #20 LSU (now #12)
#2	Michigan	9-0	2	Won 59-3 over Maryland
#3	Clemson	9-0	4	Won 54-0 over Syracuse
#4	Louisville	8-1	5	Won 52-7 at Boston College
#5	Western Michigan	9-0	8	Won 52-20 at Ball State
#6	Washington	9-0	6	Won 66-27 at California
#7	Penn State	7-2	15	Won 41-14 over Iowa
#8	Ohio State	8-1	16	Won 62-3 over #19 Nebraska
#9	Wisconsin	7-2	18	Won 21-7 at Northwestern
#10	Texas A&M	7-2	3	Lost 35-28 at unrated Mississippi State
#11	Auburn	7-2	7	Won 23-16 over Vanderbilt
#12	Louisiana State	5-3	20	Lost 10-0 to #1 Alabama
#13	Arkansas	6-3	24	Won 31-10 over #25 Florida (now #16)
#14	Nebraska	7-2	19	Lost 62-3 at #16 Ohio State (now #8)
#15	Tennessee	6-3	11	Won 55-0 over Tennessee Tech
#16	Florida	6-2	25	Lost 31-10 at #24 Arkansas (now #13)
#17	Virginia Tech	7-2	12	Won 24-21 at Duke
#18	North Carolina	7-2	13	Won 48-20 over Georgia Tech
#19	Florida State	6-3	17	Won 24-20 at North Carolina State
#20	Colorado	7-2	21	Won 20-10 over UCLA
#21	Troy	7-1	23	Won 52-31 over Massachusetts
#22	Mississippi	4-5	26	Won 37-27 over Georgia Southern
#23	Tulsa	7-2	27	Won 45-24 over East Carolina
#24	Memphis	6-3	28	Won 51-17 at Southern Methodist
#25	Utah	7-2	29	Did not play

Notes on Changes to This Week's Top 25

The big result this week was unrated Miami (Florida) whipping previous #14 Pittsburgh 51-28, which not only knocked Pitt out of the rankings, but also caused a large ripple effect on multiple other teams. ACC teams like Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and Florida State fall in the rankings (2 of them barely beat Pitt this year), and Tennessee falls because the big win that has been propping them up came over Virginia Tech.

Western Michigan still hasn't beaten anyone of value, but their last 8 wins have all come by more than a touchdown, and they had been rated #25 in the preseason, Washington #30, so I bumped WMU up ahead of the Huskies. After all, Washington has accomplished very little themselves.

Auburn falls a bit because of the fall of Texas A&M, who defeated Auburn earlier in the season, and who was upset by an unrated team this week.

Florida hasn't been very impressive this year, and they were particularly unimpressive this week (losing 31-10 at Arkansas), but they have taken no upset losses, while teams like Virginia Tech and Colorado have, so I moved the Gators past those teams.

I've been avoiding rating 4-5 Mississippi, due to their losing records, for weeks, but I can avoid it no longer. 7-2 Tulsa has not performed well enough overall, they have an upset loss, and they have only one win of value to their credit, so I just can't see moving them ahead of Ole Miss. Note that all 5 of Mississippi's losses have come to teams ranked ahead of them, and they have a 48-28 win over #24 Memphis.

Finally, 7-2 Oklahoma State had been ranked #10 last week, and they won 43-37 at 5-3 Kansas State, but they fall all the way out of the rankings this week. Why? Well, first of all, previous #9 Baylor, who had beaten OSU 35-24 earlier in the season, was trounced 62-22 by unrated Texas Christian this week, their second straight loss to an unrated team. That knocks Baylor out of the rankings, and OSU falls out with them. Furthermore, OSU's best win had come over Pitt, who, as noted above, also fell out of the rankings this week.

Close to the Top 25

The following teams are next in line to be ranked:

#26 Wyoming
#27 Boise State
#28 Washington State
#29 Stanford
#30 Southern Cal
#31 Temple
#32 South Florida
#33 Navy
#34 Houston
#35 Oklahoma
#36 San Diego State
#37 Oklahoma State
#38 West Virginia
#39 Kansas State
#40 Texas
#41 Miami (Florida)
#42 Pittsburgh
#43 Georgia Tech

Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

This week we only have 2 games pitting top 25 teams against each other: #10 Texas A&M hosts #22 Mississippi, and #12 LSU visits #13 Arkansas. In other games of note, #3 Clemson hosts #42 Pitt, #4 Louisville hosts 6-3 Wake Forest, #6 Washington hosts #30 Southern Cal, #14 Nebraska hosts 7-2 Minnesota, #17 Virginia Tech hosts #43 Georgia Tech, #21 Troy hosts 7-2 Appalachian State, #23 Tulsa visits #33 Navy, #24 Memphis hosts #32 South Florida, and #35 Oklahoma (7-2) hosts 6-2 Baylor.

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