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Ranking the Top 25 Teams for the 2019 Season

January 3, 2020

AP poll voters' top 25 ballots will be due right after the National Championship game between #1 Louisiana State and #3 Clemson, but hopefully they have already started working on their final rankings. With more than a week to go before the final game, AP voters have plenty of time to look carefully at all the relevant teams and to put together a solid final top 25. To help in that regard, I offer some advice on how certain teams should be ranked (below), but first let's look at the final regular-season AP poll, along with the teams' subsequent bowl results thus far:

1) Louisiana State 14-0	Defeated #4 Oklahoma 63-28
2) Ohio State 13-1	Lost to #3 Clemson 29-23
3) Clemson 14-0	Defeated #2 Ohio State 29-23
4) Oklahoma 12-2	Lost to #1 Louisiana State 63-28
5) Georgia 12-2	Defeated #8 Baylor 26-14
6) Florida 11-2	Defeated 9-5 Virginia 36-28
7) Oregon 12-2	Defeated #11 Wisconsin 28-27
8) Baylor 11-3	Lost to #5 Georgia 26-14
9) Auburn 9-4 Alabama 11-2	Lost to #16 Minnesota 31-24 Defeated #17 Michigan 35-16
11) Wisconsin 10-4	Lost to #7 Oregon 28-27
12) Utah 11-3	Lost to 8-5 Texas 38-10
13) Penn State 11-2	Defeated #15 Memphis 53-39
14) Notre Dame 11-2	Defeated 7-6 Iowa State 33-9
15) Memphis 12-2	Lost to #13 Penn State 53-39
16) Minnesota 11-2	Defeated #9 Auburn 31-24
17) Michigan 9-4	Lost to #9 Alabama 35-16
18) Boise State 12-2	Lost to 8-5 Washington 38-7
19) Iowa 10-3	Defeated #22 Southern Cal 49-24
20) Appalachian State 13-1	Defeated 9-5 UAB 31-17
21) Navy 11-2	Defeated 8-5 Kansas State 20-17
22) Southern Cal 8-5	Lost to #19 Iowa 49-24
23) Cincinnati 11-3	Defeated 6-7 Boston College 38-6
24) Air Force 11-2	Defeated 6-7 Washington State 31-21
25) Oklahoma State 8-5	Lost to 8-5 Texas A&M 24-21

Others Receiving Votes (in order from most poll points to least)

Southern Methodist 10-3	Lost to 11-3 Florida Atlantic 52-28
Virginia 9-5	Lost to #6 Florida 36-28
Kansas State 8-5	Lost to #21 Navy 20-17
Florida Atlantic 11-3	Defeated 10-3 SMU 52-28
Texas A&M 8-5	Defeated #25 Oklahoma State 24-21
Iowa State 7-6	Lost to #14 Notre Dame 33-9
Arizona State 8-5	Defeated 6-7 Florida State 20-14
Central Florida 10-3	Defeated 8-5 Marshall 48-25
California 8-5	Defeated 6-7 Illinois 35-20
Washington 8-5	Defeated #18 Boise State 38-7
North Dakota State 15-0	Defeated 11-4 FCS team 42-14

Oregon and Auburn

I see a couple of standout problems coming to the final AP poll: Oregon has taken 2 upset losses and is already overrated, and Auburn will be underrated with 2 upset wins. Luckily, these 2 problems can be solved with 1 simple fix: Auburn defeated Oregon 27-21 in the season opener for both teams, so move Auburn ahead of Oregon. If you do that, Oregon will have just 1 upset loss, so their ranking will make much more sense, and Auburn will have just 1 upset win (over Alabama), balanced out by by 1 upset loss (to Minnesota).

I addressed this issue in my comments on the last December AP poll, and even though Auburn has taken an upset loss to Minnesota in the Outback Bowl, that still does not change the fact that Auburn should be rated higher than Oregon. That's because Auburn was effectively 2 games better than Oregon before the bowl games were even played: Auburn defeated Oregon in the season opener for both teams, and Oregon took an upset loss to an unrated team (8-5 Arizona State), while Auburn did not take an upset loss prior to their bowl game. Auburn's bowl loss only makes up for one of those 2 games. It balances out Oregon's upset loss to ASU, but that still leaves us with Auburn's head-to-head win over Oregon.

Sure, Auburn is 9-4 and Oregon 12-2, but Auburn took losses to Florida, LSU, and Georgia, all of whom are rated higher than Oregon. It is irrational to rate Auburn lower than Oregon due to a vastly tougher schedule, but unfortunately that is the sort of thing the AP poll does every single year.

Interestingly, this issue is deja vu all over again. Last year, 10-4 Washington was rated #13 in the final poll, while 8-5 Auburn was left unrated, even though Auburn defeated Washington by 5 points in the season opener (they beat Oregon by 6 points this year). In the fixed 2018 AP poll, I moved Auburn in front of Washington, where they belonged, and when I fix this year's final AP poll, I will just have to move Auburn ahead of Oregon, where they belong.

Alabama

11-2 Alabama, on the other hand, can be viably rated ahead of Auburn despite a head-to-head loss (as they will be). That is because unlike Oregon, Alabama did not take another upset loss. Auburn and Alabama have the same relevant record, but Auburn's upset loss came in a bowl game, giving it greater weight.

Penn State, Minnesota, and Wisconsin

I would rate these 3 teams in the order of their head-to-head results, like so: 10-4 Wisconsin > 11-2 Minnesota > 11-2 Penn State. After all, Wisconsin's win over Minnesota was on the road and decisive (38-17), and it is the reason Wisconsin won their division. However, I expect these teams to be rated in the opposite order in the final AP poll. And I do think that will work, so I don't foresee fixing it. Penn State's loss to Minnesota came on the road and was very close (31-26), and PSU vastly outperformed Minnesota on the season, so I think PSU can be logically rated ahead of Minnesota. And with Auburn also rated ahead of Minnesota (as they will be when I move them ahead of Oregon, as covered above), Minnesota can be logically rated ahead of Wisconsin.

Michigan, Iowa, and Notre Dame

9-4 Michigan is sure to be ranked behind 10-3 Iowa and 11-2 Notre Dame in the final AP poll, but Michigan defeated both teams, and they should be rated ahead of both teams. Iowa did defeat a higher-ranked team (Minnesota), so they have the same relevant record as Michigan, but the head-to-head tiebreaker should go to the Wolverines.

As for Notre Dame, their loss to Michigan was as decisive as it gets (45-14), and the Irish did not defeat any opponent as good as the 4 that beat Michigan, so Notre Dame has no case at all for being rated higher than Michigan.

Because of their win over a higher-rated team, 10-3 Iowa has a relevant record that is effectively a game better than that of 11-2 Notre Dame, so Iowa should be rated higher than Notre Dame. Iowa also performed far better against Michigan (losing 10-3) than Notre Dame did (45-14). But that's not all. Iowa also beat Southern Cal by 25, while Notre Dame only beat USC by 3. This is not close.

Memphis and Navy

I expect 12-2 Memphis and 11-2 Navy to be rated higher than Michigan in the final poll as well, but it need hardly be said that Navy should be rated behind Notre Dame (who beat them 52-20), who, again, should be rated behind Michigan (who, again, beat the Irish 45-14).

As for 12-2 Memphis, they took an upset loss to an unranked team this season (8-5 Temple), and because Michigan, Iowa, and Notre Dame did not take any upset losses (if you correctly rate Iowa and Notre Dame behind Michigan), Memphis should be rated behind all 3 teams. For good measure, Memphis just lost to Penn State by 14 points in the Cotton Bowl, and Michigan only lost to PSU by 7, Iowa by 5. Furthermore, Memphis only beat Navy by 12, while Notre Dame beat Navy by 32.

So, to recap, this is how these teams should be rated relative to one another: Michigan > Iowa > Notre Dame > Memphis > Navy.

Appalachian State

13-1 Appalachian State is similar to Memphis: they took an upset loss to an unranked team (7-6 Georgia Southern), and they should therefore be rated behind Michigan, Iowa, and Notre Dame as well. More than that, they should be rated behind Memphis and Navy. It need hardly be said that the AAC was a far better conference than the Sun Belt, and unlike Appalachian State, Navy did not take an upset loss. And Navy accomplished far more than Appalachian State did this season, including wins over 11-2 Air Force, 10-3 Southern Methodist, and 8-5 Kansas State.

Texas and Utah

8-5 Texas stomped on 11-3 Utah 38-10 in the Alamo Bowl, and Texas should therefore be rated higher than Utah. Texas does have 2 upset losses on their ledger (to 5-7 TCU and 7-6 Iowa State), but Utah has 1 (8-5 USC), so the bowl result makes them effectively even, with Texas getting the head-to-head tiebreaker. And that head-to-head edge is all the stronger having come in a bowl game.

Also, 38-10 speaks pretty clearly on this issue.

Boise State, Air Force, Washington, and Southern Cal

I'm guessing that 12-2 Boise State will end up rated just a bit higher than 8-5 Washington in the final poll, but after Washington stomped on them 38-7 in the Las Vegas Bowl, they should not be. And since Boise State defeated Air Force this season, we have the following chain: 8-5 Washington > 12-2 Boise State > 11-2 Air Force.

But it's more complicated than that, because 8-5 Washington lost to 8-5 California, who lost to 8-5 Arizona State, who lost to 8-5 Southern Cal (as did Cal). I would rate all these teams accordingly myself, resulting in the following long victory chain: 8-5 USC > 8-5 ASU > 8-5 Cal > 8-5 Washington > 12-2 Boise State > 11-2 Air Force.

However, I do think that Arizona State and California can be removed from this chain and validly dismissed. ASU took a huge 3 upset losses (Boise State only took 1, and Air Force none), and their upset win over Oregon only makes up for one of those. And Cal's 20-19 win at Washington was their only win over a winning team. They otherwise performed very poorly against a very weak schedule. Washington beat 4 winning teams and performed far better, so Washington can be validly rated ahead of Cal despite the head-to-head result.

But Southern Cal is another story. Washington did beat Southern Cal this season, and both teams finished 8-5, but there is simply no getting around the fact that Southern Cal should be rated ahead of Washington. That is because USC beat four teams that beat Washington this year: Utah, Cal, Stanford, and Colorado. Washington beat BYU, who beat USC, and their head-to-head win over the Trojans makes up for another 1 of those games, but that's it, leaving Washington effectively 2 games worse than Southern Cal for the season.

So in the end, these teams should be rated in this order: 8-5 Southern Cal > 8-5 Washington > 12-2 Boise State > 11-2 Air Force.

I'm guessing that in the final poll, Boise State will be rated about #21, Washington #23, Air Force #25, and USC unrated, so obviously I will have a lot of rearranging to do when I fix it.

Texas A&M

I don't think 8-5 Texas A&M will finish ranked, but I think they should. All 5 of their losses have come to highly-rated teams, whereas many teams in the bottom half of the final top 25 will have taken upset losses to unranked teams. And the Aggies just beat #25 Oklahoma State in their bowl game.

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