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Comments on the AP College Football Poll: December 7, 2014

1) Alabama 12-1
2) Florida State 13-0
3) Oregon 12-1
4) Baylor 11-1
5) Ohio State 12-1
6) Texas Christian 11-1
7) Michigan State 10-2
8) Mississippi State 10-2
9) Mississippi 9-3
10) Georgia Tech 10-3
11) Kansas State 9-3
12) Arizona 10-3
13) Georgia 9-3
14) UCLA 9-3
15) Arizona State 9-3
16) Missouri 10-3
17) Wisconsin 10-3
18) Clemson 9-3
19) Auburn 8-4
20) Louisville 9-3
21) Boise State 11-2
22) Louisiana State 8-4
23) Utah 8-4
24) Southern Cal 8-4
25) Nebraska 9-3

Others Receiving Votes
Minnesota 8-4
Oklahoma 8-4
Marshall 12-1
Memphis 9-3
Duke 9-3
Colorado State 10-2
Northern Illinois 11-2
Air Force 9-3
Cincinnati 9-3
West Virginia 7-5
Central Florida 9-3
Stanford 7-5

As I said in my comments on last week's AP college football poll, I will not be fixing the AP poll until after the final edition is released in January. In the meantime, I will just be commenting on some of the poll's more dubious ranking choices.

With bowl games still to be played, some of these dubious choices may sort themselves out, one way or the other. For example, below you will see that I think #22 LSU (8-4) should be rated higher than #17 Wisconsin (10-3). However, if Wisconsin wins their bowl game over #19 Auburn (who beat LSU 41-7), the AP poll voters will have been proven correct.

So I'll wait until all games have been played before fixing the AP poll.

Playoff Committee Rankings

I will also add some comments on the playoff committee rankings at the end of this article. The playoff committee has done a better job of ranking teams than the AP poll has so far, but the differences are minor, and the committee still suffers from the same problem the AP poll does-- they rely far too much on teams' straight records when ranking them.

Because the playoff committee will not be ranking teams in a final post-bowl top 25, I will not be fully fixing any of their rankings.

Now let's get to commenting on the latest AP poll. Most of this week's issues were already covered in my comments on last week's poll, but there are a couple of new problems, and some additional information on last week's issues.

Ohio State

12-1 Ohio State's #5 ranking is awkward and dubious. You could go either way on ranking them ahead of or behind #4 Baylor (11-1), but once you decide to rank the Buckeyes behind Baylor, it makes absolutely no sense to rate them ahead of #6 TCU (11-1). After all, TCU played a tougher schedule than Baylor did and performed better against it. It's valid to rank Baylor higher than TCU, but only because of their head-to-head win over TCU.

This issue may well take care of itself when the bowls are played anyway.

Kansas State and Auburn

As covered last week, #19 Auburn (8-4) already beat #11 Kansas State (9-3) 20-14 on the road, and I believe they should be rated ahead of KSU. All poll voters care about is that KSU is 9-3 and Auburn 8-4, but they should do a better job of accounting for the schedules faced. Auburn's schedule has been a ridiculous meatgrinder that includes 6 ranked teams, while KSU has played just 3 ranked teams-- and they lost all of those games. Auburn has beaten 3 ranked teams, KSU none!

The rating of these 2 teams was bad last week, but with Oklahoma (KSU's "big" win) falling out of the top 25, it is now downright awful.

Mississippi and Auburn

Also covered last week, I think Auburn should be ranked ahead of Mississippi (9-3, #9) as well. Hit the link for the details. But this week, Ole Miss has been moved ahead of Kansas State, and that gives the AP poll some reason to rank Ole Miss higher. I'll look at this issue in more detail when I'm fixing the final AP poll in January.

Wisconsin and Louisiana State

Also covered last week, LSU (8-4, #22) opened the season by defeating Wisconsin (10-3, #17) 28-24, and I think they should be ranked higher. Wisconsin has a better record because they play in the Big 10. Period.

Both teams have 1 loss to an unranked opponent, Wisconsin falling to 5-7 Northwestern and LSU to 6-6 Arkansas. Wisconsin has 1 win over a ranked opponent, #25 Nebraska. LSU has beaten Wisconsin and #9 Mississippi.

This issue should have been made even clearer by Wisconsin's 59-0 loss to Ohio State this week. Still, if Wisconsin beats Auburn in their bowl game (Auburn beat LSU 41-7), I suppose the AP poll will be proven correct.

Clemson

#18 Clemson (9-3) strikes me as a bit underrated. All 3 of their losses have come to ranked teams (#2 FSU, #10 Georgia Tech, and #13 Georgia), while the next 9 teams in front of them have all taken at least one loss to a lower-ranked team.

Take #16 Missouri (10-3) for example. They lost to a bad Indiana team, and they haven't beaten a single ranked team, while Clemson has beaten #20 Louisville. Why is Missouri ranked ahead of Clemson?

Louisville and Boise State vs Utah and Southern Cal

As covered last week, Louisville (#20, 9-3) and Boise State (#21, 11-2) should not be rated higher than Utah (#23, 8-4) and Southern Cal (#24, 8-4).

All four of these teams have taken exactly 1 loss to an unranked opponent. So they are essentially the same, but Utah and USC have more losses because they have played more rated opponents. And much tougher schedules in general. Where these teams can be differentiated is in their wins. Neither Louisville nor Boise State has beaten a single rated opponent, whereas Utah has beaten #14 UCLA and #24 USC, and USC has beaten #12 Arizona.

Furthermore, USC beat Notre Dame 49-14 in their finale, a team Louisville only beat 31-28 one week earlier, and those results should have made this situation extra-clear for the voters, if only they paid closer attention to something beyond straight records.

Nebraska and Minnesota

Another one covered last week, and this one is still probably the worst rating in this poll. #25 Nebraska (9-3) just lost to #26 Minnesota (8-4) 28-24 in Lincoln a couple weeks ago. Minnesota was rated higher than Nebraska after that, but then they lost 34-24 to #17 Wisconsin in their finale, and they dropped behind Nebraska. That is just senseless, because Nebraska lost to Wisconsin 59-24 November 15th!

Maybe Nebraska's overtime win over unrated Iowa in their finale pushed them past Minnesota? No, that makes no sense either, since Minnesota destroyed Iowa 51-14 on November 8th. There is absolutely no question that Minnesota should be rated higher than Nebraska, and anyone voting otherwise should not be rating teams at all.

Minnesota has 1 more loss than Nebraska because they played #6 Texas Christian. Now they're essentially being punished for playing a very tough nonconference opponent, and poll voters really need to stop doing that.

Texas A&M and Arkansas

Also covered last week, 7-5 Texas A&M and 6-6 Arkansas got no poll points at all, so they're not even in the AP poll's top 37 teams. But they should be ranked in the top 25 despite all their losses. As I said last week (updated for this week's games):

All 5 of Texas A&M's losses have come to ranked teams. That puts them ahead of Louisville, Boise State, Utah, Nebraska, Southern Cal, Minnesota, and many other teams. And Texas A&M has a win over a ranked opponent (#19 Auburn), unlike Louisville, Boise State, Nebraska, and many teams in the "Others Receiving Votes" section of the AP poll. A&M also beat Arkansas.

Other than Texas A&M, who should be ranked, all of Arkansas' losses have come to ranked teams as well. And Arkansas has beaten 2 ranked teams, #9 Mississippi and #22 Louisiana State, something that 10 ranked teams have not accomplished!

Unless Texas A&M and/or Arkansas take losses in their bowl games, these are 2 teams primed for being moved up into the top 25 when I fix the final AP poll in January. Sagarin's computer system currently has Arkansas rated #13 and Texas A&M #20. May be a reason for that.

Playoff Committee Rankings

The main job of the playoff committee, of course, is selecting the 4 teams for the new FBS playoff. They differed from the AP poll here, as they chose Ohio State for the 4th spot, while Baylor edged out OSU for #4 in the AP poll. Who is right? Well, as stated above, you could go either way on it. It's too bad we don't have an 8-team playoff, though, because the exclusion of TCU and Baylor from the playoff is rather arbitrary and casts a pall on the whole thing.

As covered above, though, if you decide that Baylor belongs ahead of OSU, then it makes no sense to rate OSU ahead of TCU, so the playoff committee did better than the AP poll at ranking Ohio State.

But the committee underrated Auburn and LSU, ignoring their head-to-head wins over KSU and Wisconsin, same as the AP poll. They also declined to rate Texas A&M and Arkansas, much like the AP poll. So while the committee is slightly better than the AP poll, they largely suffer from the same mental blocks, the biggest being too much stock put in straight records, with much too little regard for the vast differences in schedule that lead to those records.

The playoff committee did slightly better at rating Clemson than the AP poll did, placing them ahead of Wisconsin, but they rate Utah and USC behind Louisville and Boise, same as the AP poll. Finally, the playoff committee correctly rated Minnesota ahead of Nebraska, unlike the AP poll. That's 3 differences that all fall in favor of the committee. Congrats to them on that, but they could still do better.

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