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Comments on the AP College Football Poll: November 30, 2014

1) Alabama 11-1
2) Florida State 12-0
3) Oregon 11-1
4) Texas Christian 10-1
5) Baylor 10-1
6) Ohio State 11-1
7) Michigan State 10-2
8) Arizona 10-2
9) Kansas State 9-2
10) Mississippi State 10-2
11) Wisconsin 10-2
12) Georgia Tech 10-2
13) Mississippi 9-3
14) Missouri 10-2
15) Georgia 9-3
16) UCLA 9-3
17) Arizona State 9-3
18) Oklahoma 8-3
19) Clemson 9-3
20) Auburn 8-4
21) Louisville 9-3
22) Boise State 10-2
23) Louisiana State 8-4
24) Utah 8-4
25) Nebraska 9-3

Others Receiving Votes
Southern Cal 8-4
Minnesota 8-4
Duke 9-3
Marshall 11-1
Memphis 9-3
Colorado State 10-2
Air Force 9-3
West Virginia 7-5
Stanford 7-5
Northern Illinois 10-2
Central Florida 8-3
Cincinnati 8-3

If you've been wondering why I haven't been fixing the AP college football poll every week, it's because I don't bother to fix the AP poll's top 25 until after the final edition is released in January. When there are no more games to be played, there is no longer any wiggle room for ignoring head-to-head results and season-long performance. But before that, there can be plenty of room for wiggling.

For example, Kansas State is currently ranked #9, and Auburn is ranked #20. Auburn won at KSU already, and I think they should be ranked ahead of KSU. But who knows what will happen next? Maybe KSU will upset Baylor next week, or maybe Auburn will lose to a mediocre team in their bowl game, and the writers will be proven right about KSU being ranked higher. So I'll just wait for all the dust to clear before I fix the final post-bowl AP poll.

But while I will not fix the AP poll until January, it is late enough in the season that I now feel comfortable commenting on the weekly poll. I will go ahead and point out problems with the poll that would be outright errors if the season had ended last weekend, and no more games were to be played. This can also give voters (in the AP or in any other poll) an idea of potential errors to avoid going forward.

Playoff Committee Rankings

I will also be commenting on the playoff committee rankings each week going forward (in separate articles), and I will not be fully fixing their rankings either. The playoff committee has done a better job of ranking teams than the AP poll has so far, but the differences are minor, and the committee still suffers from the same problem the AP poll does-- they rely far too much on teams' straight records when ranking them.

Because the playoff committee will not be ranking teams in a final post-bowl top 25, I will not be fully fixing any of their rankings.

Now let's get to commenting on the latest AP poll. The big problem in this poll, as is often the case, is the SEC. Now, I know that everyone is sick and tired of the SEC, and there has been a lot of crying and moaning this year about the SEC being "overrated." However, this is a fictional problem. The SEC is not overrated, but underrated in the AP poll, as they are almost every year.

Kansas State and Auburn

#20 Auburn already beat #9 Kansas State 20-14 on the road, and I believe they should be rated ahead of KSU. As I stated above, KSU may yet earn a higher rating going forward, but as of now I don't see how they have done so, other than by playing a schedule that is far, far easier than that faced by Auburn.

All poll voters care about is that KSU is 9-2 and Auburn 8-4, but they should do a better job of accounting for the schedules faced. Auburn's schedule has been a ridiculous meatgrinder, while KSU has played just 3 ranked teams, winning 1 of those games. Auburn has beaten 3 ranked teams!

Mississippi and Auburn

But I'm not done with #20 Auburn yet: I also think they should be ranked ahead of #13 Mississippi, another team they beat on the road. Mississippi is 9-3 and Auburn 8-4, but again, this is because Auburn faced a tougher schedule. Aside from common opponents, Auburn played #9 Kansas State and #15 Georgia, both on the road, while Ole Miss faced #22 Boise State at home.

But let's look at this logically, step by step. As stated, Auburn won at Ole Miss, putting them effectively a game ahead. Ole Miss defeated Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Alabama, all of whom defeated Auburn, so that moves Ole Miss 2 games ahead of Auburn. Auburn defeated LSU and Arkansas, both of whom defeated Ole Miss, and that puts the 2 teams even. Except that Auburn has the head-to-head advantage, and should therefore be ranked higher.

Auburn did lose to #15 Georgia, who is ranked 2 places behind Ole Miss, but they balanced that out by defeating #9 Kansas State, who is ranked 4 places ahead of Ole Miss. Obviously AP poll voters feel that Ole Miss would go 1-1 against those teams as well, based on where they ranked them.

Poll voters just don't take the time to look more deeply than straight records. But they should.

Wisconsin and Louisiana State

Here we go again. LSU (8-4, #23) opened the season by defeating Wisconsin (10-2, #11) 28-24, and I think they should be ranked higher. Wisconsin has a better record because they play in the Big 10. Period.

Both teams have 1 loss to an unranked opponent, Wisconsin falling to 5-7 Northwestern and LSU to 6-6 Arkansas. Wisconsin has 1 win over a ranked opponent, #25 Nebraska. LSU has beaten Wisconsin and #13 Mississippi.

Again, maybe Wisconsin will "earn" a higher rating this week, especially since their opponent, #6 Ohio State, has lost their quarterback. Or maybe LSU will be upset by a mediocre team in their bowl game. Otherwise, LSU should be rated higher.

Georgia and Missouri

Yes, #14 Missouri won the Eastern division of the SEC, and they are 10-2, while #15 Georgia is 9-3. But Georgia defeated Missouri by a very convincing 34-0 on the road, and while Missouri did one game better in SEC play, thus winning their division, they lost that advantage with a very ugly upset loss to Indiana in nonconference play. Georgia lost to #12 Georgia Tech, but that is irrelevant, since the AP poll has GT rated higher than Missouri anyway.

Head to head advantage should put Georgia higher. This issue will resolve itself one way or the other this week, though, as Missouri faces #1 Alabama in the SEC title game. Win that game, and they earn a higher rating. Lose it, and they drop behind Georgia in the next poll anyway.

Louisville and Boise State vs Utah and Southern Cal

Louisville (#21, 9-3) and Boise State (#22, 10-2) should not be rated higher than Utah (#24, 8-4) and Southern Cal (#26, 8-4).

All four of these teams have taken exactly 1 loss to an unranked opponent. So they are essentially the same, but Utah and USC have more losses because they have played more rated opponents. And much tougher schedules in general. Where these teams can be differentiated is in their wins. Neither Louisville nor Boise State has beaten a single rated opponent, whereas Utah has beaten #16 UCLA (as well as #26 USC), and USC has beaten #8 Arizona.

Furthermore, USC just beat Notre Dame 49-14, a team Louisville only beat 31-28 one week earlier, and those results should have made this situation extra-clear for the voters, if only they paid closer attention to something beyond straight records.

Nebraska and Minnesota

Now this is just flat-out ridiculous, probably the worst rating in this poll. #25 Nebraska (9-3) just lost to #27 Minnesota (8-4) 28-24 in Lincoln a week ago. Minnesota was rated higher than Nebraska in the last poll. Now, because Minnesota lost 34-24 to #11 Wisconsin, they drop behind Nebraska? How does that make any sense at all? Nebraska lost to Wisconsin 59-24 just 2 weeks ago!

Maybe Nebraska's overtime win over unrated Iowa pushed them past Minnesota? No, that makes no sense either, since Minnesota destroyed Iowa 51-14 on November 8th. There is absolutely no question that Minnesota should be rated higher than Nebraska, and anyone voting otherwise should not be rating teams at all.

Minnesota has 1 more loss than Nebraska because they played #4 Texas Christian. Now they're essentially being punished for playing a very tough nonconference opponent, and poll voters really need to stop doing that.

Texas A&M and Arkansas

7-5 Texas A&M and 6-6 Arkansas got no poll points at all, so they're not even in the AP poll's top 37 teams. But they should be ranked in the top 25. Yes, they took a ton of losses. Of course they did, look at the division they were playing in. But let's look at this logically.

All 5 of Texas A&M's losses have come to ranked teams. That puts them ahead of Louisville, Boise State, Utah, Nebraska, Southern Cal, Minnesota, and many other teams. And Texas A&M has a win over a ranked opponent (#20 Auburn), unlike Louisville, Boise State, Nebraska, and many teams in the "Others Receiving Votes" section of the AP poll. A&M also beat Arkansas.

Other than Texas A&M, who should be ranked, all of Arkansas' losses have come to ranked teams as well. And Arkansas has beaten 2 ranked teams, #13 Mississippi and #23 Louisiana State, something that 11 ranked teams have not accomplished!

Unless Texas A&M and/or Arkansas take upset losses in their bowl games, these are 2 teams primed for being moved up into the top 25 when I fix the final AP poll in January. They could be ranked as high as #18 and #19 now.

Sagarin's computer system currently has Arkansas rated #14 and Texas A&M #21. May be a reason for that.

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