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Ranking the Top 25 Teams for the 2012 Season

January 3, 2013

AP poll voters' top 25 ballots will be due right after the BCS National Championship game, but hopefully they have already started working on their final rankings. Most teams have now finished their seasons, and with 4 days to go before the final game, AP voters have plenty of time to look carefully at the contenders and get it right. To help in that regard, I offer some advice on how certain teams should be ranked (below), but first let's look at the final regular-season AP poll along with the teams' subsequent bowl results thus far:

1) Notre Dame 12-0 TBD (vs #2 Alabama)
2) Alabama 12-1 TBD (vs #1 Notre Dame)
3) Ohio State 12-0 No Bowl
4) Florida 11-2 Lost to #22 Louisville 33-23
5) Oregon 12-1 Beat #7 Kansas State 35-17
6) Georgia 12-2 Beat #23 Nebraska 45-31
7) Kansas State 11-2 Lost to #5 Oregon 35-17
8) Stanford 12-2 Beat 8-6 Wisconsin 20-14
9) Louisiana State 10-3 Lost to #14 Clemson 25-24
10) Texas A&M 10-2 TBD (vs #12 Oklahoma)
11) South Carolina 11-2 Beat #19 Michigan 33-28
12) Oklahoma 10-2 TBD (vs #10 Texas A&M)
13) Florida State 12-2 Beat #16 Northern Illinois 31-10
14) Clemson 11-2 Beat #9 LSU 25-24
15) Oregon State 9-4 Lost to 9-4 Texas 31-27
16) Northern Illinois 12-2 Lost to #13 FSU 31-10
17) UCLA 9-5 Lost to 8-5 Baylor 49-26
18) Utah State 11-2 Beat 9-4 Toledo 41-15
19) Michigan 8-5 Lost to #11 South Carolina 33-28
20) Boise State 11-2 Beat 7-6 Washington 28-26
21) Northwestern 10-3 Beat 8-5 Mississippi State 34-20
22) Louisville 11-2 Beat #4 Florida 33-23
23) Nebraska 10-4 Lost to #6 Georgia 45-31
24) San Jose State 11-2 Beat 8-5 Bowling Green 29-20
25) Kent State 11-2 TBD (vs 9-3 Arkansas State)

Others Receiving Votes

Penn State 8-4 No Bowl
Vanderbilt 9-4 Beat 7-6 North Carolina State 38-24
Wisconsin 8-6 Lost to #8 Stanford 20-14
Texas 9-4 Beat #15 Oregon State 31-27
San Diego State 9-4 Lost to 8-5 BYU 23-6
Fresno State 9-4 Lost to 7-6 SMU 43-10
Oklahoma State 8-5 Beat 6-7 Purdue 58-14
Baylor 8-5 Beat #17 UCLA 49-26
Cincinnati 10-3 Beat 6-7 Duke 48-34
Texas Christian 7-6 Lost to 7-6 Michigan State 17-16
Arkansas State 9-3TBD (vs #25 Kent State)
Southern Cal 7-6Lost to 7-7 Georgia Tech 21-7
Tulsa 11-3Beat 6-7 Iowa State 31-17
Rutgers 9-4Lost to 7-6 Virginia Tech 13-10, OT
Ball State 9-4Lost to 10-4 Central Florida 38-17
North Carolina 8-4No Bowl
West Virginia 7-6Lost to 8-5 Syracuse 38-14

Approximating the Bottom Half of the Final AP Rankings

I don't think the top 14 teams will change-- just the order they're in. Based on what's happened so far, the rest will look something like this:

15) Louisville 11-2
16) Utah State 11-2
17) Boise State 11-2
18) Northwestern 10-3
19) Northern Illinois 12-2
20) San Jose State 11-2
21) Kent State 12-2 (assuming they beat Arkansas State)
22) Texas 9-4
23) Oregon State 9-4
24) Baylor 8-5
25) UCLA 9-5
Other candidates for the last few slots include 8-4 Penn State, 9-4 Vanderbilt, and 10-3 Cincinnati.

Those rankings will certainly need to be logically fixed, mostly because of the obscene number of "Little Big Teams" due to be stuffed in there this year. Utah State didn't beat anyone except San Jose State, who didn't beat anyone period. Utah State lost to Wisconsin, and really, there's no good reason they should be rated higher than Wisconsin. Boise State didn't beat anyone, and lost to Michigan State. Northern Illinois lost to Iowa. These teams can't even beat unranked Big 10 teams, but they're top 25? No.

Then there's Northwestern, who lost to Penn State, Nebraska, and Michigan, none of whom are likely to finish in the top 25. They will certainly be one of the most overrated teams in the final poll this year.

The Big Chain

The above teams should be pretty easy to correctly rate, because most of them fall into this simple chain:

Texas > Oregon State > Baylor > UCLA > Nebraska > Michigan > Northwestern > Penn State > Wisconsin > Utah State > San Jose State.

Most of this chain comes from head-to-head results. Northwestern, for example, is sure to finish rated pretty highly, and they are already rated higher than Nebraska. But Nebraska beat Northwestern. And Nebraska beat Michigan, who beat Northwestern. And Nebraska beat Penn State, who beat Northwestern. Frankly, ranking Northwestern higher than Nebraska is just senseless. It's just rewarding Northwestern for playing a far, far easier schedule than Nebraska did.

But rewarding teams for playing easy schedules is kinda what the AP poll does, and what it needs to stop doing. Boise State, Utah State, San Jose State, Northern Illinois, and Kent State are all reaping rating rewards for playing easy schedules. Just stop it, AP voters.

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